Putting Up Numbers· NFL

Patriots @ Bears

Thu, Oct 22, 2026

Bears 30, Patriots 24The Bears were favored by 3, and the Bears covered.

Patriots at Bears: against expected, a game, this season, This game
a gamePatriots1 gameBears1 game
Points+1.6+7.5
Points allowed+6.0+1.1
Total offense, yards+54+84
Total defense, yards+54+35
Passing yards+88+74
Rushing yards−38+7
Yards an attempt+3.1+2.2
Sacks taken−0.4+0.7
Turnovers−0.2−1.3
Turnovers forced−1.4−0.4

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game.

Who put up numbers

Bears

Patriots

Analysis

What was true going in. Each line says how it stood up, and how it came out.

Bears

  • The Bears' points allowed were 11.0 lower at home than away against expected over their last 35 games, 32nd of 32 teams.fact · rankedthe split →This game: 1.5 over expected.
  • The Bears were 3.4 points a game over the closing line this season, 6th of 32.fact · rankedits form →+3.0 against the line this game.

Patriots

  • The Patriots had won 6 straight at home.streakthe runs →This game didn’t count toward it.
  • The Patriots were 3.4 points a game over the closing line this season, 6th of 32.fact · rankedits form →−3.0 against the line this game.

The series

If you squint

  • The Bears had won 7 of their last 10 at home.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
  • The Bears were 3–2 against the line as a favorite this season.countits form →Covered.
  • At home, the Bears' carries were 11.2 over expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 2.2 over expected.
  • The Patriots had won 8 of their last 10 on the road.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
  • The Patriots had won 7 of their last 10.countits form →Now 7 of 11.
  • On the road, the Patriots' points were 8.2 under expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 1.5 over expected.

Every meeting

DateWhereScore
Oct 22, 2026at BearsBears 30, Patriots 24
Nov 10, 2024at BearsPatriots 19, Bears 3
Oct 24, 2022at PatriotsBears 33, Patriots 14
Oct 21, 2018at BearsPatriots 38, Bears 31
Oct 26, 2014at PatriotsPatriots 51, Bears 23
Dec 12, 2010at BearsPatriots 36, Bears 7
Nov 26, 2006at PatriotsPatriots 17, Bears 13
Nov 10, 2002at BearsPatriots 33, Bears 30
Dec 10, 2000at BearsBears 24, Patriots 17
Sep 21, 1997at PatriotsPatriots 31, Bears 3

Method

  • Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The five biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
  • “This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 21, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
  • A game with no box score sits out.

Read next