Putting Up Numbers· NFL

Jets @ Patriots

Sun, Oct 18, 2026

Patriots 26, Jets 19The Patriots were favored by 7.5, and the Jets covered.

Jets at Patriots: against expected, a game, this season, This game
a gameJets1 gamePatriots1 game
Points−3.5+2.9
Points allowed+2.9−3.5
Total offense, yards+9+41
Total defense, yards+23+5
Passing yards+18+2
Rushing yards−11+33
Yards an attempt+1.2+0.2
Sacks taken+0.7−2.3
Turnovers−0.3+0.6
Turnovers forced+0.6−0.1

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game.

Who put up numbers

Patriots

Jets

Analysis

What was true going in. Each line says how it stood up, and how it came out.

Patriots

  • The Patriots had covered 5 straight at home.streakthe runs →Ended here.
  • The Patriots had won 5 straight at home.streakthe runs →Extended to 6.
  • The Patriots were 4.2 points a game over the closing line this season, 5th of 32.fact · rankedits form →−0.5 against the line this game.

Jets

  • The Jets were 2.0 points a game over the closing line this season, 10th of 32.fact · rankedits form →+0.5 against the line this game.

The series

  • The Patriots lead the series 71–51–1 since 1966. The Patriots have won the last 4.seriesevery meeting →

If you squint

  • The Patriots had won 7 of their last 10.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
  • At home, the Patriots' points of margin were 22.9 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 4.4 over expected.
  • Against a division opponent, the Patriots' carries were 8.0 over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 7.5 over expected.
  • The Jets had lost 8 of their last 10.countits form →Now 9 of 11.
  • The Jets were 2–1–1 against the line as an underdog this season.countits form →Covered.
  • On the road, the Jets' pass attempts were 7.5 under expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 2.0 under expected.

Every meeting

DateWhereScore
Oct 18, 2026at PatriotsPatriots 26, Jets 19
Dec 28, 2025at JetsPatriots 42, Jets 10
Nov 13, 2025at PatriotsPatriots 27, Jets 14
Oct 27, 2024at PatriotsPatriots 25, Jets 22
Sep 19, 2024at JetsJets 24, Patriots 3
Jan 7, 2024at PatriotsJets 17, Patriots 3
Sep 24, 2023at JetsPatriots 15, Jets 10
Nov 20, 2022at PatriotsPatriots 10, Jets 3
Oct 30, 2022at JetsPatriots 22, Jets 17
Oct 24, 2021at PatriotsPatriots 54, Jets 13

Method

  • Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The five biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
  • “This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 17, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
  • A game with no box score sits out.

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