Raiders @ Patriots

Sun, Oct 11, 2026

Patriots 45, Raiders 17The Patriots were favored by 3.5, and the Patriots covered.

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game.

Who put up numbers

What was true going in. Each line says how it stood up, and how it came out.

The Patriots had covered 4 straight at home.streakthe runs →Extended to 5.
The Patriots had won 4 straight at home.streakthe runs →Extended to 5.
The Patriots were 0.9 points a game under the closing line this season, 17th of 32.fact · rankedits form →+24.5 against the line this game.

The Raiders had covered 5 straight.streakthe runs →Ended here.
The Raiders were 10.6 points a game over the closing line this season, 2nd of 32.fact · rankedits form →−24.5 against the line this game.

The Patriots had won 7 of their last 10.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
At home, the Patriots' points allowed were 19.8 under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 6.2 under expected.
On the road, the Raiders' rushing yards were 23.1 under expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 55.2 under expected.

Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The five biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
“This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 10, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
A game with no box score sits out.