Putting Up Numbers· NFL

Broncos @ Chargers

Sun, Oct 11, 2026

Broncos 23, Chargers 17The Broncos were favored by 3.5, and the Broncos covered.

Broncos at Chargers: against expected, a game, this season, This game
a gameBroncos1 gameChargers1 game
Points−0.3−5.8
Points allowed−3.7+0.5
Total offense, yards−117−82
Total defense, yards−60−92
Passing yards−110−114
Rushing yards−9+40
Yards an attempt−2.7−2.0
Sacks taken−1.3+2.7
Turnovers−0.2+1.7
Turnovers forced+1.5−0.1

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game.

Who put up numbers

Chargers

Broncos

Analysis

What was true going in. Each line says how it stood up, and how it came out.

Chargers

  • The Chargers had lost 7 straight.streakthe runs →Extended to 8.
  • The Chargers were 10.0 points a game under the closing line this season, 31st of 32.fact · rankedits form →−2.5 against the line this game.

Broncos

  • The Broncos had covered 5 straight at home.streakthe runs →This game didn’t count toward it.
  • The Broncos were 4.6 points a game under the closing line this season, 26th of 32, and 8.7 worse away than at home over their last 35, 32nd of 32.fact · rankedits form →+2.5 against the line this game.

The series

  • The Broncos lead the series 72–49–1 since 1966. The Broncos have won the last 2.seriesevery meeting →

If you squint

  • At home, the Chargers' points were 8.8 under expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 2.9 under expected.
  • Against a division opponent, the Chargers' carries were 5.1 over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 6.9 over expected.
  • Against a division opponent, the Broncos' points of margin were 22.4 under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 2.2 over expected.
  • On the road, the Broncos' points were 11.1 under expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 0.0 over expected.

Every meeting

DateWhereScore
Oct 11, 2026at ChargersBroncos 23, Chargers 17
Jan 4, 2026at BroncosBroncos 19, Chargers 3
Sep 21, 2025at ChargersChargers 23, Broncos 20
Dec 19, 2024at ChargersChargers 34, Broncos 27
Oct 13, 2024at BroncosChargers 23, Broncos 16
Dec 31, 2023at BroncosBroncos 16, Chargers 9
Dec 10, 2023at ChargersBroncos 24, Chargers 7
Jan 8, 2023at BroncosBroncos 31, Chargers 28
Oct 17, 2022at ChargersChargers 19, Broncos 16
Jan 2, 2022at ChargersChargers 34, Broncos 13

Method

  • Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The five biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
  • “This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 10, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
  • A game with no box score sits out.

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