Putting Up Numbers· NFL

Bears @ Packers

Sun, Oct 11, 2026

Packers 31, Bears 7The Bears were favored by 1.5, and the Packers covered.

Bears at Packers: against expected, a game, this season, This game
a gameBears1 gamePackers1 game
Points−15.9+8.6
Points allowed+8.6−17.6
Total offense, yards−68+100
Total defense, yards+96−100
Passing yards−39+134
Rushing yards−32−39
Yards an attempt−2.2+4.6
Sacks taken+1.7−0.3
Turnovers+3.8−1.2
Turnovers forced−1.3+3.8

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game.

Who put up numbers

Packers

Bears

Analysis

What was true going in. Each line says how it stood up, and how it came out.

Packers

  • The Packers were 10.4 points a game under the closing line this season, 32nd of 32.fact · rankedits form →+25.5 against the line this game.

Bears

  • The Bears were 9.9 points a game over the closing line this season, 3rd of 32.fact · rankedits form →−25.5 against the line this game.

The series

If you squint

  • The Packers had failed to cover 8 of their last 10.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
  • The Packers had lost 7 of their last 10.countits form →Now 7 of 11.
  • Against a division opponent, the Packers' passing yards were 174.1 over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 120.4 over expected.
  • At home, the Packers' pass attempts were 18.2 over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 3.4 under expected.
  • The Bears had covered 7 of their last 10.countits form →Now 7 of 11.
  • On the road, the Bears' points were 35.7 over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 17.7 under expected.
  • Against a division opponent, the Bears' points were 20.3 under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 17.7 under expected.

Every meeting

DateWhereScore
Oct 11, 2026at PackersPackers 31, Bears 7
Jan 10, 2026at BearsBears 31, Packers 27
Dec 20, 2025at BearsBears 22, Packers 16
Dec 7, 2025at PackersPackers 28, Bears 21
Jan 5, 2025at PackersBears 24, Packers 22
Nov 17, 2024at BearsPackers 20, Bears 19
Jan 7, 2024at PackersPackers 17, Bears 9
Sep 10, 2023at BearsPackers 38, Bears 20
Dec 4, 2022at BearsPackers 28, Bears 19
Sep 18, 2022at PackersPackers 27, Bears 10

Method

  • Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The five biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
  • “This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 10, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
  • A game with no box score sits out.

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