Putting Up Numbers· NFL

Packers @ Buccaneers

Sun, Oct 4, 2026

Packers 17, Buccaneers 14The Packers were favored by 3, and the game pushed.

Packers at Buccaneers: against expected, a game, this season, This game
a gamePackers1 gameBuccaneers1 game
Points−5.3−8.9
Points allowed−9.3−5.6
Total offense, yards−52−56
Total defense, yards−49−63
Passing yards−37−86
Rushing yards−20+29
Yards an attempt−0.4−1.6
Sacks taken−2.3+0.7
Turnovers+0.9+0.9
Turnovers forced+0.7+0.7

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game.

Who put up numbers

Buccaneers

Packers

Analysis

What was true going in. Each line says how it stood up, and how it came out.

Buccaneers

  • The Buccaneers had failed to cover 12 straight, tied for the longest since 1999.streakthe runs →Ended here.
  • The Buccaneers were 6.8 points a game under the closing line this season, 27th of 32.fact · rankedits form →0.0 against the line this game.

Packers

  • The Packers had failed to cover 8 straight, tied for the 8th-longest since 1999.streakthe runs →Ended here.
  • The Packers were 13.8 points a game under the closing line this season, 32nd of 32.fact · rankedits form →0.0 against the line this game.

The series

If you squint

  • The Buccaneers had lost 8 of their last 10.countits form →Now 9 of 11.
  • At home, the Buccaneers' pass attempts were 7.2 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 4.5 under expected.
  • The Packers had lost 7 of their last 10.countits form →Now 7 of 11.
  • On the road, the Packers' carries were 6.7 under expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 0.2 over expected.

Every meeting

DateWhereScore
Oct 4, 2026at BuccaneersPackers 17, Buccaneers 14
Dec 17, 2023at PackersBuccaneers 34, Packers 20
Sep 25, 2022at BuccaneersPackers 14, Buccaneers 12
Jan 24, 2021at PackersBuccaneers 31, Packers 26
Oct 18, 2020at BuccaneersBuccaneers 38, Packers 10
Dec 3, 2017at PackersPackers 26, Buccaneers 20
Dec 21, 2014at BuccaneersPackers 20, Buccaneers 3
Nov 20, 2011at PackersPackers 35, Buccaneers 26
Nov 8, 2009at BuccaneersBuccaneers 38, Packers 28
Sep 28, 2008at BuccaneersBuccaneers 30, Packers 21

Method

  • Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The five biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
  • “This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 3, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
  • A game with no box score sits out.

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