Putting Up Numbers· NFL

Patriots @ Jaguars

Sun, Sep 27, 2026

Jaguars 35, Patriots 6The Jaguars were favored by 3, and the Jaguars covered.

Patriots at Jaguars: against expected, a game, this season, This game
a gamePatriots1 gameJaguars1 game
Points−16.1+12.7
Points allowed+10.8−17.5
Total offense, yards−17−24
Total defense, yards−40−32
Passing yards+10−52
Rushing yards−23+29
Yards an attempt+0.6−1.0
Sacks taken+0.7−1.4
Turnovers+1.8−0.3
Turnovers forced−0.1+1.6

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game.

Who put up numbers

Jaguars

Patriots

Analysis

What was true going in. Each line says how it stood up, and how it came out.

Patriots

  • The Patriots had covered 4 straight at home.streakthe runs →This game didn’t count toward it.
  • The Patriots had won 4 straight at home.streakthe runs →This game didn’t count toward it.

The series

  • The Patriots lead the series 12–4 since 1996. The Jaguars have won the last 2.seriesevery meeting →

If you squint

  • The Jaguars had covered 8 of their last 10.countits form →Now 9 of 11.
  • The Jaguars had won 8 of their last 10 at home.countits form →Now 9 of 11.
  • At home, the Jaguars' points of margin were 20.7 over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 29.7 over expected.
  • The Patriots had won 9 of their last 10 on the road.countits form →Now 9 of 11.
  • The Patriots had won 7 of their last 10.countits form →Now 7 of 11.
  • The Patriots had covered 7 of their last 10 on the road.countits form →Now 7 of 11.
  • On the road, the Patriots' points were 13.3 under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 16.6 under expected.

Every meeting

DateWhereScore
Sep 27, 2026at JaguarsJaguars 35, Patriots 6
Oct 20, 2024neutralJaguars 32, Patriots 16
Jan 2, 2022at PatriotsPatriots 50, Jaguars 10
Sep 16, 2018at JaguarsJaguars 31, Patriots 20
Jan 21, 2018at PatriotsPatriots 24, Jaguars 20
Sep 27, 2015at PatriotsPatriots 51, Jaguars 17
Dec 23, 2012at JaguarsPatriots 23, Jaguars 16
Dec 27, 2009at PatriotsPatriots 35, Jaguars 7
Jan 12, 2008at PatriotsPatriots 31, Jaguars 20
Dec 24, 2006at JaguarsPatriots 24, Jaguars 21

Method

  • Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The five biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
  • “This season” and the analysis are the games through Sep 26, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
  • A game with no box score sits out.

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