Jaguars @ Ravens

Thu, Nov 5 · M&T Bank Stadium

The line has it Jaguars 25, Ravens 15.Jaguars −10, total 39.5, as of Nov 4. A line moves until kickoff. From nflverse’s schedule file, which doesn’t name a book.

Jaguars at Ravens: against expected, a game, this season, All games
a game	Jaguars7 games	Ravens8 games
	+5.0	−1.1
	−7.1	+2.2
	+15	+3
	+3	+1
	+8	−11
	+9	+18
	+1.7	+0.8
	−0.5	+0.4
	−0.6	−0.3
	+0.5	−0.3

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game. Lit is among the five biggest either way. Tap a row for the games.

Analysis

What’s true going in. Each line says how it stood up; you judge.

Ravens

The Ravens are 5.4 points a game under the closing line this season, 30th of 32, and 9.1 worse at home than away over their last 35, 32nd of 32.fact · rankedits form →

Jaguars

The Jaguars are 8.4 points a game over the closing line this season, 1st of 32, and 9.4 worse away than at home over their last 35, 32nd of 32.fact · rankedits form →

The series

The Jaguars lead the series 13–11 since 1996.seriesevery meeting →

If you squint

Without Trey Hendrickson, the Ravens' rushing yards are 45.1 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →
Without Zay Flowers, the Ravens' carries are 6.0 under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →
Since Lamar Jackson’s last game, the Ravens' sacks taken are 1.4 over expected in 4 games. A +2.0 difference in sacks taken over expected since Lamar Jackson’s last game vs with Lamar Jackson is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were since Lamar Jackson’s last game and it comes up 5 times in 100.thinwithout him →
The Jaguars have won 7 of their last 10.countits form →
The Jaguars have won 7 of their last 10 on the road.countits form →
The Jaguars are 3–2 against the line as a favorite this season.countits form →
On the road, the Jaguars' points are 7.4 under expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →

Every meeting

Date	Where	Score
Dec 17, 2023	at Jaguars	Ravens 23, Jaguars 7
Nov 27, 2022	at Jaguars	Jaguars 28, Ravens 27
Dec 20, 2020	at Ravens	Ravens 40, Jaguars 14
Sep 24, 2017	neutral	Jaguars 44, Ravens 7
Sep 25, 2016	at Jaguars	Ravens 19, Jaguars 17
Nov 15, 2015	at Ravens	Jaguars 22, Ravens 20
Dec 14, 2014	at Ravens	Ravens 20, Jaguars 12
Oct 24, 2011	at Jaguars	Jaguars 12, Ravens 7
Dec 28, 2008	at Ravens	Ravens 27, Jaguars 7
Nov 13, 2005	at Jaguars	Jaguars 30, Ravens 3

Method

Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The five biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
A game with no box score sits out.