Villarreal’s goals at home and away
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Villarreal was 0.27 goals under at home and 0.26 goals over away in 2026-27, 6 games against 8. The plain averages are 1.50 and 1.75, a difference of 0.25. Expected was 0.28 goals higher at home than away.
Villarreal’s −0.53 at home vs away over expected ranks 34th of the 42 teams with 5 games on each side this season.
goals a game over expected
at home
−0.27
away
+0.26
-101
A −0.53 difference in goals over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
1.50
1.75
0123
A −0.25 difference in goals at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | goals | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | @ Racing Santander | T | 2 | 2.16 | |
| Aug 23, 2026 | @ Atlético Madrid | T | 2 | 1.12 | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | @ Alavés | L | 0 | 1.78 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Deportivo | L | 2 | 1.70 | |
| Sep 8, 2026 | @ Borussia Dortmund | L | 2 | 1.37 | |
| Sep 14, 2026 | vs Real Betis | L | 1 | 1.78 | |
| Sep 17, 2026 | @ Málaga | W | 3 | 1.66 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | vs Levante | W | 3 | 1.77 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Real Madrid | L | 0 | 1.30 | |
| Oct 13, 2026 | vs Napoli | W | 3 | 1.73 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Elche | T | 0 | 1.90 | |
| Oct 20, 2026 | @ Liverpool | L | 3 | 1.08 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Valencia | W | 2 | 1.47 | |
| Oct 30, 2026 | vs Espanyol | L | 0 | 1.75 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026-27 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.21 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 44% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.