Villarreal’s points in the Champions League and in the league
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Villarreal was 1.27 points under in the Champions League and 0.31 points over in the league in 2025-26, 8 games against 38. The plain averages are 0.13 and 1.89, a difference of 1.77. All 6 games without Renato Veiga were in the league. All 4 games without Santi Comesaña were in the league.
Villarreal’s −1.58 in the Champions League vs in the league over expected ranks 22nd of the 22 teams with 5 games on each side in 2025-26.
points a game over expected
A −1.58 difference in points over expected in the Champions League vs in the league is rare: shuffle which games were in the Champions League and it comes up less than once in 100.
A −1.77 difference in points in the Champions League vs in the league is rare: shuffle which games were in the Champions League and it comes up once in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2025 | vs Real Oviedo | W | 3 | 2.16 | |
| Aug 24, 2025 | vs Girona | W | 3 | 1.84 | |
| Aug 31, 2025 | @ Celta Vigo | T | 1 | 1.35 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @ Atlético Madrid | L | 0 | 1.09 | |
| Sep 16, 2025 | @ Tottenham Hotspur | L | 0 | 1.01 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs Osasuna | W | 3 | 1.93 | |
| Sep 23, 2025 | @ Sevilla | W | 3 | 1.61 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vs Athletic Club | W | 3 | 1.87 | |
| Oct 1, 2025 | vs Juventus | T | 1 | 1.39 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @ Real Madrid | L | 0 | 0.84 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vs Real Betis | T | 1 | 1.51 | |
| Oct 21, 2025 | vs Manchester City | L | 0 | 0.82 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @ Valencia | W | 3 | 1.42 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vs Rayo Vallecano | W | 3 | 1.66 | |
| Nov 5, 2025 | @ Pafos | L | 0 | 1.46 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @ Espanyol | W | 3 | 1.48 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs Mallorca | W | 3 | 1.93 | |
| Nov 25, 2025 | @ Borussia Dortmund | L | 0 | 0.90 | |
| Nov 30, 2025 | @ Real Sociedad | W | 3 | 1.41 | |
| Dec 6, 2025 | vs Getafe | W | 3 | 1.81 | |
| Dec 10, 2025 | vs F.C. København | L | 0 | 2.05 | |
| Dec 21, 2025 | vs Barcelona | L | 0 | 1.13 | |
| Jan 3, 2026 | @ Elche | W | 3 | 1.48 | |
| Jan 10, 2026 | vs Alavés | W | 3 | 1.89 | |
| Jan 17, 2026 | @Real Betis | L | 0 | 1.20 | |
| Jan 20, 2026 | vs Ajax Amsterdam | L | 0 | 2.51 | |
| Jan 24, 2026 | vsReal Madrid | L | 0 | 1.18 | |
| Jan 28, 2026 | @ Bayer Leverkusen | L | 0 | 1.04 | |
| Jan 31, 2026 | @Osasuna | T | 1 | 1.67 | |
| Feb 9, 2026 | vsEspanyol | W | 3 | 1.83 | |
| Feb 14, 2026 | @Getafe | L | 0 | 1.58 | |
| Feb 18, 2026 | @ Levante | W | 3 | 1.59 | |
| Feb 22, 2026 | vsValencia | W | 3 | 1.76 | |
| Feb 28, 2026 | @Barcelona | L | 0 | 0.79 | |
| Mar 8, 2026 | vsElche | W | 3 | 1.82 | |
| Mar 13, 2026 | @Alavés | T | 1 | 1.62 | |
| Mar 20, 2026 | vsReal Sociedad | W | 3 | 1.76 | |
| Apr 6, 2026 | @Girona | L | 0 | 1.62 | |
| Apr 12, 2026 | @Athletic Club | W | 3 | 1.53 | |
| Apr 23, 2026 | @Real Oviedo | T | 1 | 1.89 | |
| Apr 26, 2026 | vsCelta Vigo | W | 3 | 1.62 | |
| May 2, 2026 | vsLevante | W | 3 | 1.93 | |
| May 10, 2026 | @Mallorca | T | 1 | 1.67 | |
| May 13, 2026 | vsSevilla | L | 0 | 2.08 | |
| May 17, 2026 | @Rayo Vallecano | L | 0 | 1.43 | |
| May 24, 2026 | vsAtlético Madrid | W | 3 | 1.34 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2025-26 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.21 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 79% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.