Villarreal’s goals conceded in the Champions League and in the league
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Through Villarreal’s game on Oct 30, 2026.
Against what the season’s ratings expected, Villarreal was 0.87 goals over in the Champions League and 0.20 goals under in the league over its last 75 games, 11 games against 64. The plain averages are 2.36 and 1.22, a difference of 1.14. All 6 games without Santi Comesaña were in the league. All 13 games without Sergi Cardona were in the league.
Villarreal’s +1.07 in the Champions League vs in the league over expected ranks 1st of the 28 teams with 5 games on each side over their last 75 games through Oct 30, 2026.
goals conceded a game over expected
A +1.07 difference in goals conceded over expected in the Champions League vs in the league is rare: shuffle which games were in the Champions League and it comes up less than once in 100.
A +1.14 difference in goals conceded in the Champions League vs in the league is rare: shuffle which games were in the Champions League and it comes up less than once in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | goals conceded | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 15, 2025 | vs Valencia | T | 1 | 1.20 | |
| Feb 22, 2025 | @ Rayo Vallecano | W | 0 | 1.33 | |
| Mar 8, 2025 | @ Alavés | L | 1 | 1.22 | |
| Mar 15, 2025 | vs Real Madrid | L | 2 | 1.91 | |
| Mar 30, 2025 | @ Getafe | W | 1 | 1.13 | |
| Apr 6, 2025 | vs Athletic Club | T | 0 | 1.43 | |
| Apr 13, 2025 | @ Real Betis | W | 1 | 1.63 | |
| Apr 20, 2025 | vs Real Sociedad | T | 2 | 0.95 | |
| Apr 23, 2025 | @ Celta Vigo | L | 3 | 1.60 | |
| Apr 27, 2025 | vs Espanyol | W | 0 | 1.15 | |
| May 3, 2025 | vs Osasuna | W | 2 | 1.24 | |
| May 10, 2025 | @ Girona | W | 0 | 1.31 | |
| May 14, 2025 | vs Leganés | W | 0 | 1.14 | |
| May 18, 2025 | @ Barcelona | W | 2 | 2.63 | |
| May 25, 2025 | vs Sevilla | W | 2 | 1.12 | |
| Aug 15, 2025 | vs Real Oviedo | W | 0 | 0.79 | |
| Aug 24, 2025 | vsGirona | W | 0 | 1.05 | |
| Aug 31, 2025 | @Celta Vigo | T | 1 | 1.56 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @ Atlético Madrid | L | 2 | 1.88 | |
| Sep 16, 2025 | @ Tottenham Hotspur | L | 1 | 1.84 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vsOsasuna | W | 1 | 1.11 | |
| Sep 23, 2025 | @Sevilla | W | 1 | 1.42 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vsAthletic Club | W | 0 | 1.14 | |
| Oct 1, 2025 | vs Juventus | T | 2 | 1.38 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @Real Madrid | L | 3 | 2.09 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vsReal Betis | T | 2 | 1.39 | |
| Oct 21, 2025 | vs Manchester City | L | 2 | 1.95 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @Valencia | W | 0 | 1.46 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vsRayo Vallecano | W | 0 | 1.08 | |
| Nov 5, 2025 | @ Pafos | L | 1 | 1.14 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @Espanyol | W | 0 | 1.39 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs Mallorca | W | 1 | 1.18 | |
| Nov 25, 2025 | @ Borussia Dortmund | L | 4 | 1.81 | |
| Nov 30, 2025 | @Real Sociedad | W | 2 | 1.66 | |
| Dec 6, 2025 | vsGetafe | W | 0 | 0.89 | |
| Dec 10, 2025 | vs F.C. København | L | 3 | 0.95 | |
| Dec 21, 2025 | vsBarcelona | L | 2 | 2.15 | |
| Jan 3, 2026 | @ Elche | W | 1 | 1.48 | |
| Jan 10, 2026 | vsAlavés | W | 1 | 1.12 | |
| Jan 17, 2026 | @Real Betis | L | 2 | 1.65 | |
| Jan 20, 2026 | vs Ajax Amsterdam | L | 2 | 0.78 | |
| Jan 24, 2026 | vsReal Madrid | L | 2 | 1.87 | |
| Jan 28, 2026 | @ Bayer Leverkusen | L | 3 | 1.70 | |
| Jan 31, 2026 | @Osasuna | T | 2 | 1.33 | |
| Feb 9, 2026 | vsEspanyol | W | 1 | 1.10 | |
| Feb 14, 2026 | @Getafe | L | 2 | 1.07 | |
| Feb 18, 2026 | @ Levante | W | 0 | 1.48 | |
| Feb 22, 2026 | vsValencia | W | 1 | 1.16 | |
| Feb 28, 2026 | @Barcelona | L | 4 | 2.35 | |
| Mar 8, 2026 | vsElche | W | 1 | 1.22 | |
| Mar 13, 2026 | @Alavés | T | 1 | 1.38 | |
| Mar 20, 2026 | vsReal Sociedad | W | 1 | 1.44 | |
| Apr 6, 2026 | @Girona | L | 1 | 1.27 | |
| Apr 12, 2026 | @Athletic Club | W | 1 | 1.37 | |
| Apr 23, 2026 | @Real Oviedo | T | 1 | 1.01 | |
| Apr 26, 2026 | vsCelta Vigo | W | 1 | 1.30 | |
| May 2, 2026 | vsLevante | W | 1 | 1.19 | |
| May 10, 2026 | @Mallorca | T | 1 | 1.44 | |
| May 13, 2026 | vsSevilla | L | 3 | 1.09 | |
| May 17, 2026 | @Rayo Vallecano | L | 2 | 1.26 | |
| May 24, 2026 | vsAtlético Madrid | W | 1 | 1.65 | |
| Aug 16, 2026 | @ Racing Santander | T | 2 | 1.64 | |
| Aug 23, 2026 | @Atlético Madrid | T | 2 | 1.90 | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | @Alavés | L | 1 | 1.67 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Deportivo | L | 3 | 1.26 | |
| Sep 8, 2026 | @Borussia Dortmund | L | 3 | 1.39 | |
| Sep 14, 2026 | vsReal Betis | L | 2 | 1.59 | |
| Sep 17, 2026 | @ Málaga | W | 1 | 1.46 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | vsLevante | W | 1 | 1.57 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @Real Madrid | L | 1 | 2.34 | |
| Oct 13, 2026 | vs Napoli | W | 1 | 1.56 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vsElche | T | 0 | 1.55 | |
| Oct 20, 2026 | @ Liverpool | L | 4 | 1.97 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @Valencia | W | 1 | 1.34 | |
| Oct 30, 2026 | vsEspanyol | L | 1 | 1.31 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 0.10 in 2024-25, minus 0.16 in 2025-26, minus 0.21 in 2026-27 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 77% in 2024-25, 75% in 2025-26, 44% in 2026-27 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Read against the season’s ratings as of Nov 1, 2026; the games are the ones through Oct 30.