Nottingham Forest’s shots conceded after an international break and between breaks
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Through Nottingham Forest’s game on Oct 11, 2026.
Against what the season’s ratings expected, Nottingham Forest was 4.7 shots over after an international break and 0.3 shots under between breaks over its last 75 games, 6 games against 58. The plain averages are 19.2 and 12.8, a difference of 6.3. All 4 games without Neco Williams were between breaks. All 14 games without Murillo were between breaks.
Nottingham Forest’s +5.0 after an international break vs between breaks over expected ranks 1st of the 75 teams with 5 games on each side over their last 75 games through Oct 11, 2026.
shots conceded a game over expected
A +5.0 difference in shots conceded over expected after an international break vs between breaks is rare: shuffle which games were after an international break and it comes up less than once in 100.
A +6.3 difference in shots conceded after an international break vs between breaks is rare: shuffle which games were after an international break and it comes up less than once in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | Shots against | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 2024 | vs Crystal Palace | W | 19 | 12.8 | |
| Oct 25, 2024 | @ Leicester City | W | 11 | 11.2 | |
| Nov 2, 2024 | vs West Ham United | W | 4 | 12.7 | |
| Nov 10, 2024 | vs Newcastle United | L | 17 | 13.2 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ Arsenal | L | 19 | 15.4 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs Ipswich Town | W | 7 | 10.2 | |
| Dec 4, 2024 | @ Manchester City | L | 18 | 17.2 | |
| Dec 7, 2024 | @ Manchester United | W | 18 | 15.2 | |
| Dec 14, 2024 | vs Aston Villa | W | 8 | 12.8 | |
| Dec 21, 2024 | @ Brentford | W | 7 | 14.1 | |
| Dec 26, 2024 | vs Tottenham Hotspur | W | 12 | 12.8 | |
| Dec 29, 2024 | @ Everton | W | 13 | 12.5 | |
| Jan 6, 2025 | @ Wolverhampton Wanderers | W | 12 | 13.3 | |
| Jan 14, 2025 | vs Liverpool | T | 22 | 15.6 | |
| Jan 19, 2025 | vs Southampton | W | 10 | 9.4 | |
| Jan 25, 2025 | @ AFC Bournemouth | L | 15 | 16.8 | |
| Feb 1, 2025 | vs Brighton & Hove Albion | W | 10 | 13.7 | |
| Feb 15, 2025 | @ Fulham | L | 23 | 14.9 | |
| Feb 23, 2025 | @Newcastle United | L | 12 | 15.6 | |
| Feb 26, 2025 | vsArsenal | T | 13 | 13.6 | |
| Mar 8, 2025 | vsManchester City | W | 14 | 15.2 | |
| Mar 15, 2025 | @Ipswich Town | W | 11 | 12.1 | |
| Apr 1, 2025 | vsManchester United | W | 23 | 12.9 | |
| Apr 5, 2025 | @Aston Villa | L | 17 | 14.5 | |
| Apr 12, 2025 | vsEverton | L | 13 | 10.3 | |
| Apr 21, 2025 | @Tottenham Hotspur | W | 22 | 14.4 | |
| May 1, 2025 | vsBrentford | L | 11 | 11.7 | |
| May 5, 2025 | @Crystal Palace | T | 20 | 14.9 | |
| May 11, 2025 | vsLeicester City | T | 10 | 9.2 | |
| May 18, 2025 | @West Ham United | W | 16 | 14.2 | |
| May 25, 2025 | vs Chelsea | L | 6 | 15.4 | |
| Aug 17, 2025 | vsBrentford | W | 10 | 10.4 | |
| Aug 24, 2025 | @Crystal Palace | T | 8 | 14.0 | |
| Aug 31, 2025 | vsWest Ham United | L | 12 | 10.4 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @Arsenal | L | 16 | 15.9 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @ Burnley | T | 12 | 11.9 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vs Sunderland | L | 11 | 10.2 | |
| Oct 5, 2025 | @Newcastle United | L | 18 | 14.9 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vsChelsea | L | 17 | 12.4 | |
| Oct 26, 2025 | @AFC Bournemouth | L | 13 | 15.8 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vsManchester United | T | 18 | 14.6 | |
| Nov 9, 2025 | vs Leeds United | W | 10 | 12.2 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @Liverpool | W | 21 | 17.5 | |
| Nov 30, 2025 | vsBrighton & Hove Albion | L | 17 | 12.2 | |
| Dec 3, 2025 | @Wolverhampton Wanderers | W | 5 | 12.5 | |
| Dec 6, 2025 | @Everton | L | 11 | 13.4 | |
| Dec 14, 2025 | vsTottenham Hotspur | W | 6 | 11.2 | |
| Dec 22, 2025 | @Fulham | L | 11 | 14.9 | |
| Dec 27, 2025 | vsManchester City | L | 16 | 14.3 | |
| Dec 30, 2025 | vsEverton | L | 11 | 10.8 | |
| Jan 3, 2026 | @Aston Villa | L | 11 | 14.9 | |
| Jan 6, 2026 | @West Ham United | W | 14 | 12.9 | |
| Jan 17, 2026 | vsArsenal | T | 15 | 13.4 | |
| Jan 25, 2026 | @Brentford | W | 10 | 13.0 | |
| Feb 1, 2026 | vsCrystal Palace | T | 14 | 11.0 | |
| Feb 6, 2026 | @Leeds United | L | 14 | 14.6 | |
| Feb 11, 2026 | vsWolverhampton Wanderers | T | 7 | 9.7 | |
| Feb 22, 2026 | vsLiverpool | L | 10 | 15.4 | |
| Mar 1, 2026 | @Brighton & Hove Albion | L | 14 | 15.0 | |
| Mar 4, 2026 | @Manchester City | T | 21 | 16.7 | |
| Mar 15, 2026 | vsFulham | T | 6 | 12.5 | |
| Mar 22, 2026 | @Tottenham Hotspur | W | 14 | 13.5 | |
| Apr 12, 2026 | vsAston Villa | T | 12 | 12.2 | |
| Apr 19, 2026 | vsBurnley | W | 4 | 9.6 | |
| Apr 24, 2026 | @Sunderland | W | 14 | 12.7 | |
| May 4, 2026 | @Chelsea | W | 21 | 14.9 | |
| May 10, 2026 | vsNewcastle United | T | 16 | 12.4 | |
| May 17, 2026 | @Manchester United | L | 29 | 16.7 | |
| May 24, 2026 | vsAFC Bournemouth | T | 17 | 12.9 | |
| Aug 22, 2026 | vsLeeds United | L | 11 | 9.2 | |
| Aug 29, 2026 | @Liverpool | T | 13 | 14.3 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsTottenham Hotspur | T | 12 | 11.7 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @Aston Villa | W | 7 | 12.4 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Coventry City | L | 10 | 8.7 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | @Crystal Palace | L | 13 | 9.1 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 1.1 in 2024-25, minus 1.4 in 2025-26, minus 1.1 in 2026-27 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 89% in 2024-25, 88% in 2025-26, 65% in 2026-27 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- 11 games in 2024-25 and 2025-26 and 2026-27 are neither after an international break nor between breaks, and sit out.
- Read against the season’s ratings as of Nov 1, 2026; the games are the ones through Oct 11.