Aston Villa’s goals at home and away
, ,
Against what the season’s ratings expected, Aston Villa was 0.38 goals over at home and 0.09 goals under away in 2026-27, 7 games against 5. The plain averages are 2.14 and 1.40, a difference of 0.74. Both games vs top-half teams were at home.
Aston Villa’s +0.48 at home vs away over expected ranks 15th of the 42 teams with 5 games on each side this season.
goals a game over expected
at home
+0.38
away
−0.09
024
A +0.48 difference in goals over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
2.14
1.40
0246
A +0.74 difference in goals at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | goals | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | @ Brighton & Hove Albion | L | 0 | 1.26 | |
| Aug 31, 2026 | vs Arsenal | L | 0 | 1.41 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Hull City | T | 0 | 1.53 | |
| Sep 8, 2026 | @ Club Brugge | W | 3 | 1.59 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Nottingham Forest | L | 1 | 1.76 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Tottenham Hotspur | W | 3 | 1.23 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Brentford | T | 2 | 1.55 | |
| Oct 14, 2026 | vs Fenerbahce | W | 6 | 1.93 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Newcastle United | W | 1 | 1.85 | |
| Oct 21, 2026 | vs Viking FK | W | 3 | 2.32 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Manchester City | W | 2 | 1.65 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Fulham | T | 1 | 1.69 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026-27 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.21 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 44% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.