Putting Up Numbers· Soccer

Venezia @ Como

Sun, Nov 1, 2026

Como 1, Venezia 0

Venezia at Como: against expected, a game, this season, This game
a gameVenezia1 gameComo1 game
Goals−1.36−0.83
Goals conceded−1.13−0.88
Expected goals−1.03−0.55
Expected goals conceded−0.62−1.10
Shots−6.0+3.0
Shots conceded+1.2−6.5
Points−0.92+0.88

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game.

Who put up numbers

Como

Analysis

What was true going in. Each line says how it stood up, and how it came out.

Como

  • Como’s shots were 3.1 higher vs a top-half team than vs a bottom-half team against expected over its last 75 games, 2nd of 110 teams.fact · rankedthe split →This game: 0.5 over expected.
  • Como had won 4 straight.streakthe runs →Extended to 5.

The series

If you squint

  • Como had won 7 of its last 10 at home.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
  • At home, Como’s expected goal difference were 1.05 over expected in 5 games. A +1.42 difference in expected goal difference over expected at home vs away is rare: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up less than once in 100.thinthe split →This game: 0.11 under expected.
  • Against a bottom-half team, Como’s points were 1.10 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 0.64 over expected.
  • Venezia had lost 9 of its last 10.countits form →Now 10 of 11.
  • Against a top-half team, Venezia’s shots conceded were 5.3 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 0.5 over expected.
  • On the road, Venezia’s expected goals were 0.39 over expected in 4 games. 4 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 0.86 under expected.

Every meeting

DateWhereScore
Nov 1, 2026at ComoComo 1, Venezia 0
Mar 8, 2025at ComoComo 1, Venezia 1
Dec 8, 2024at VeneziaComo 2, Venezia 2

Method

  • Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
  • “This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 31, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
  • A game with no box score sits out.