Putting Up Numbers· Soccer

Udinese @ Venezia

Fri, Nov 6 · Serie A · Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo

The odds have it Venezia 1.58, Udinese 1.29.Expected goals from DraftKings’ closing odds on ESPN’s match pages, as of Nov 4. Odds move until kickoff.

Udinese at Venezia: against expected, a game, this season, All games
a gameUdinese10 gamesVenezia10 games
−0.49−1.00
+0.67+0.29
−0.29−0.21
+0.49+0.29
+0.6−0.9
+1.8+1.5
−0.88−1.04

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game. Lit is among the ten biggest either way. Tap a row for the games.

Analysis

What’s true going in. Each line says how it stood up; you judge.

The series

If you squint

  • Venezia has lost 9 of its last 10.countits form →
  • At home, Venezia’s expected goals conceded are 0.52 over expected in 5 games. A +0.78 difference in expected goals conceded over expected at home vs away is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up 14 times in 100.thinthe split →
  • Udinese has lost 7 of its last 10.countits form →
  • On the road, Udinese’s yellow cards are 0.9 under expected in 4 games. 4 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →

Every meeting

DateWhereScore
Feb 1, 2025at UdineseUdinese 3, Venezia 2
Oct 30, 2024at VeneziaVenezia 3, Udinese 2
Apr 10, 2022at VeneziaUdinese 2, Venezia 1
Aug 27, 2021at UdineseUdinese 3, Venezia 0

Method

  • Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
  • A game with no box score sits out.

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