Putting Up Numbers· Soccer

Como @ Lens

Wed, Nov 4 · Champions League · Stade Bollaert-Delelis

The odds have it Lens 1.23, Como 1.86.Expected goals from DraftKings’ closing odds on ESPN’s match pages, as of Nov 4. Odds move until kickoff.

Como at Lens: against expected, a game, this season, All games
a gameComo13 gamesLens12 games
+0.49−0.02
−0.52+0.07
+0.31−0.01
−0.27+0.08
+3.3+1.2
−1.4−1.5
+0.68−0.06

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game. Lit is among the ten biggest either way. Tap a row for the games.

Analysis

What’s true going in. Each line says how it stood up; you judge.

Como

If you squint

  • Lens has won 7 of its last 10 at home.countits form →
  • In the Champions League, Lens’ shots are 6.5 over expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →
  • At home, Lens’ expected goals conceded are 0.35 under expected in 5 games. A −0.65 difference in expected goals conceded over expected at home vs away is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up 12 times in 100.thinthe split →
  • Como has won 7 of its last 10 on the road.countits form →
  • In the Champions League, Como’s goals are 1.72 over expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →
  • On the road, Como’s expected goals conceded are 0.34 over expected in 7 games. A +0.96 difference in expected goals conceded over expected away vs at home is unusual: shuffle which games were away and it comes up 4 times in 100.thinthe split →

Method

  • Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
  • A game with no box score sits out.

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