Putting Up Numbers· Soccer

Real Madrid @ Barcelona

Sun, Oct 25, 2026

Real Madrid 2, Barcelona 1

Real Madrid at Barcelona: against expected, a game, this season, This game
a gameReal Madrid1 gameBarcelona1 game
Goals+0.59−0.50
Goals conceded−2.41−0.19
Expected goals+0.08+0.27
Expected goals conceded−0.67−0.72
Shots+0.5+3.8
Shots conceded−1.5−5.9
Points+2.29−1.07

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game.

Who put up numbers

Barcelona

Real Madrid

Analysis

What was true going in. Each line says how it stood up, and how it came out.

Barcelona

  • Barcelona had won 9 straight at home.streakthe runs →Ended here.

Real Madrid

  • Real Madrid had won 4 straight.streakthe runs →Extended to 5.
  • Real Madrid had won 10 straight at home.streakthe runs →This game didn’t count toward it.

The series

If you squint

  • Barcelona had won 9 of its last 10.countits form →Now 9 of 11.
  • Barcelona had won 7 of its last 10 by 3 or more.countits form →Now 7 of 11.
  • Against a top-half team, Barcelona’s goals were 2.25 over expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 1.60 under expected.
  • At home, Barcelona’s shots were 5.9 over expected in 5 games. A +4.7 difference in shots over expected at home vs away is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up 13 times in 100.thinthe split →This game: 0.1 over expected.
  • After a Champions League game, Barcelona’s expected goals were 0.49 under expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 0.43 under expected.
  • Against a top-half team, Real Madrid’s expected goals were 1.07 under expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 0.42 under expected.
  • After a Champions League game, Real Madrid’s goals were 1.82 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 0.19 over expected.
  • On the road, Real Madrid’s shots conceded were 2.1 under expected in 5 games. A −3.6 difference in shots conceded over expected away vs at home is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were away and it comes up 16 times in 100.thinthe split →This game: 0.1 over expected.

Every meeting

DateWhereScore
Oct 25, 2026at BarcelonaReal Madrid 2, Barcelona 1
May 10, 2026at BarcelonaBarcelona 2, Real Madrid 0
Oct 26, 2025at Real MadridReal Madrid 2, Barcelona 1
May 11, 2025at BarcelonaBarcelona 4, Real Madrid 3
Oct 26, 2024at Real MadridBarcelona 4, Real Madrid 0
Apr 21, 2024at Real MadridReal Madrid 3, Barcelona 2
Oct 28, 2023at BarcelonaReal Madrid 2, Barcelona 1
Mar 19, 2023at BarcelonaBarcelona 2, Real Madrid 1
Oct 16, 2022at Real MadridReal Madrid 3, Barcelona 1
Mar 20, 2022at Real MadridBarcelona 4, Real Madrid 0

Method

  • Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
  • “This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 24, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
  • A game with no box score sits out.

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