Putting Up Numbers· Soccer

Barcelona @ Atlético Madrid

Sun, Nov 8 · La Liga · Riyadh Air Metropolitano

The odds have it Atlético Madrid 1.59, Barcelona 2.23.Expected goals from DraftKings’ closing odds on ESPN’s match pages, as of Nov 4. Odds move until kickoff.

Barcelona at Atlético Madrid: against expected, a game, this season, All games
a gameBarcelona14 gamesAtlético Madrid14 games
+2.53+0.30
−0.34−0.82
+1.15+0.01
−0.43−0.46
+6.8+2.3
−6.2−2.7
+1.25+0.93

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game. Lit is among the ten biggest either way. Tap a row for the games.

Analysis

What’s true going in. Each line says how it stood up; you judge.

Atlético Madrid

  • Atlético Madrid’s expected goals are 0.57 higher at home than away against expected over its last 75 games, 3rd of 126 teams.fact · rankedthe split →
  • Atlético Madrid has won 4 straight at home.streakthe runs →

The series

  • Barcelona leads the series 29–13–12 since 2002-03. Barcelona has won 5 straight at Atlético Madrid.seriesevery meeting →

If you squint

  • Atlético Madrid has won 8 of its last 10.countits form →
  • Barcelona has won 8 of its last 10.countits form →
  • Barcelona has won 7 of its last 10 on the road.countits form →
  • On the road, Barcelona’s yellow cards are 0.8 under expected in 7 games. A −0.8 difference in yellow cards over expected away vs at home is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were away and it comes up 16 times in 100.thinthe split →

Every meeting

DateWhereScore
Apr 14, 2026at Atlético MadridBarcelona 2, Atlético Madrid 1
Apr 8, 2026at BarcelonaAtlético Madrid 2, Barcelona 0
Apr 4, 2026at Atlético MadridBarcelona 2, Atlético Madrid 1
Dec 2, 2025at BarcelonaBarcelona 3, Atlético Madrid 1
Mar 16, 2025at Atlético MadridBarcelona 4, Atlético Madrid 2
Dec 21, 2024at BarcelonaAtlético Madrid 2, Barcelona 1
Mar 17, 2024at Atlético MadridBarcelona 3, Atlético Madrid 0
Dec 3, 2023at BarcelonaBarcelona 1, Atlético Madrid 0
Apr 23, 2023at BarcelonaBarcelona 1, Atlético Madrid 0
Jan 8, 2023at Atlético MadridBarcelona 1, Atlético Madrid 0

Method

  • Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
  • A game with no box score sits out.

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