Real Madrid @ AEK Athens

Wed, Nov 4 · Champions League · OPAP Arena

The odds have it AEK Athens 0.83, Real Madrid 2.97.Expected goals from DraftKings’ closing odds on ESPN’s match pages, as of Nov 4. Odds move until kickoff.

Real Madrid at AEK Athens: against expected, a game, this season, All games
a game	Real Madrid14 games	AEK Athens3 games
	+1.16	−0.73
	−0.74	+0.84
	+0.78	−0.31
	−0.35	−0.13
	+3.8	0.0
	−1.6	−0.1
	+1.31	−0.37

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game. Lit is among the ten biggest either way. Tap a row for the games.

Analysis

What’s true going in. Each line says how it stood up; you judge.

Real Madrid

Real Madrid has won 6 straight.streakthe runs →
Real Madrid has won 10 straight at home, tied for the longest active home winning streak in Europe.streakthe runs →

The series

The series is tied 0–0–2 since 2002-03.seriesevery meeting →

If you squint

At home, AEK Athens’ goals conceded are 4.34 under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →
Real Madrid has won 7 of its last 10 on the road.countits form →
In the Champions League, Real Madrid’s expected goals are 0.88 over expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →

Every meeting

Date	Where	Score
Oct 22, 2002	at Real Madrid	AEK Athens 2, Real Madrid 2
Oct 2, 2002	at AEK Athens	AEK Athens 3, Real Madrid 3

Method

Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
A game with no box score sits out.