Putting Up Numbers· Soccer

Leeds United @ Sunderland

Sun, Oct 25, 2026

Sunderland 0, Leeds United 0

Leeds United at Sunderland: against expected, a game, this season, This game
a gameLeeds United1 gameSunderland1 game
Goals−1.69−1.47
Goals conceded−1.28−1.17
Expected goals−0.56−0.44
Expected goals conceded−0.44−0.42
Shots−2.5+0.5
Shots conceded+1.4−0.6
Points−0.74−0.44

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game.

Analysis

What was true going in. Each line says how it stood up, and how it came out.

Sunderland

  • Sunderland had lost 4 straight.streakthe runs →Ended here.

The series

If you squint

  • Against a top-half team, Sunderland’s yellow cards were 1.7 under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 0.9 under expected.
  • At home, Sunderland’s goals were 0.83 under expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 1.23 under expected.
  • Against a bottom-half team, Leeds United’s goals were 0.73 under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 1.50 under expected.
  • On the road, Leeds United’s yellow cards were 0.8 over expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 0.2 over expected.

Every meeting

DateWhereScore
Oct 25, 2026at SunderlandSunderland 0, Leeds United 0
Mar 3, 2026at Leeds UnitedSunderland 1, Leeds United 0
Dec 28, 2025at SunderlandSunderland 1, Leeds United 1
Dec 26, 2002at SunderlandLeeds United 2, Sunderland 1
Aug 28, 2002at Leeds UnitedSunderland 1, Leeds United 0

Method

  • Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
  • “This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 24, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
  • A game with no box score sits out.

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