Putting Up Numbers· Soccer

Paris FC @ Lens

Sat, Oct 24, 2026

Lens 2, Paris FC 1

Paris FC at Lens: against expected, a game, this season, This game
a gameParis FC1 gameLens1 game
Goals−0.56+0.53
Goals conceded+0.30−0.63
Expected goals−1.07−0.47
Expected goals conceded−0.91−1.02
Shots−8.4−3.1
Shots conceded−7.0−10.0
Points−1.43+1.86

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game.

Who put up numbers

Lens

Paris FC

Analysis

What was true going in. Each line says how it stood up, and how it came out.

The series

  • Lens leads the series 3–0 since 2025-26. Lens has won the last 3.seriesevery meeting →

If you squint

  • After a Champions League game, Lens’ expected goal difference were 0.84 under expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 0.64 over expected.
  • Against a top-half team, Lens’ yellow cards were 0.8 under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 1.3 over expected.
  • Against a top-half team, Paris FC’s goals were 2.17 over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 0.77 under expected.
  • On the road, Paris FC’s goals were 0.63 under expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 0.77 under expected.

Every meeting

DateWhereScore
Oct 24, 2026at LensLens 2, Paris FC 1
Feb 14, 2026at Paris FCLens 5, Paris FC 0
Oct 19, 2025at LensLens 2, Paris FC 1

Method

  • Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
  • “This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 23, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
  • A game with no box score sits out.

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