Putting Up Numbers· Soccer

Málaga @ Alavés

Fri, Oct 23, 2026

Alavés 1, Málaga 1

Málaga at Alavés: against expected, a game, this season, This game
a gameMálaga1 gameAlavés1 game
Goals−0.52−0.79
Goals conceded−0.61+0.10
Expected goals−0.48+0.98
Expected goals conceded+1.31−0.12
Shots−5.5+2.3
Shots conceded+4.5−4.2
Points−0.42−0.90

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game.

Who put up numbers

Alavés

Málaga

Analysis

What was true going in. Each line says how it stood up, and how it came out.

The series

If you squint

  • Against a bottom-half team, Alavés’ shots were 4.0 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 3.0 over expected.
  • At home, Alavés’ expected goal difference were 0.52 under expected in 5 games. A −0.90 difference in expected goal difference over expected at home vs away is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up 11 times in 100.thinthe split →This game: 1.25 over expected.
  • Against a top-half team, Málaga’s goals conceded were 3.38 over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 0.81 under expected.
  • On the road, Málaga’s shots conceded were 2.2 over expected in 4 games. 4 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 3.0 over expected.

Every meeting

DateWhereScore
Oct 23, 2026at AlavésAlavés 1, Málaga 1
May 6, 2018at MálagaAlavés 3, Málaga 0
Dec 21, 2017at AlavésAlavés 1, Málaga 0
Mar 11, 2017at MálagaAlavés 2, Málaga 1
Oct 16, 2016at AlavésAlavés 1, Málaga 1
Feb 12, 2006at AlavésAlavés 3, Málaga 2
Sep 21, 2005at MálagaAlavés 0, Málaga 0
Apr 20, 2003at AlavésMálaga 1, Alavés 0
Nov 24, 2002at MálagaAlavés 0, Málaga 0

Method

  • Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
  • “This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 22, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
  • A game with no box score sits out.

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