RB Leipzig @ Real Madrid

Wed, Oct 21, 2026

Real Madrid 4, RB Leipzig 1

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game.

Who put up numbers

What was true going in. Each line says how it stood up, and how it came out.

RB Leipzig’s expected goals were 0.53 higher at home than away against expected over its last 75 games, 3rd of 123 teams.fact · rankedthe split →This game: 0.35 under expected.
RB Leipzig had won 9 straight at home.streakthe runs →This game didn’t count toward it.

Real Madrid had won 8 of its last 10.countits form →Now 9 of 11.
In the Champions League, Real Madrid’s expected goals were 0.80 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 1.03 over expected.
On the road, RB Leipzig’s goal difference were 2.96 under expected in 4 games. 4 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 1.82 under expected.
In the Champions League, RB Leipzig’s goal difference were 0.98 under expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 1.82 under expected.

Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
“This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 20, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
A game with no box score sits out.