AEK Athens @ Manchester City

Tue, Oct 20, 2026

Manchester City 5, AEK Athens 1

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game.

Who put up numbers

What was true going in. Each line says how it stood up, and how it came out.

Manchester City had won 4 straight on the road.streakthe runs →This game didn’t count toward it.

Manchester City had won 8 of its last 10.countits form →Now 9 of 11.
Manchester City had won 7 of its last 10 at home.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
In the Champions League, Manchester City’s shots were 7.0 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 0.6 under expected.
At home, Manchester City’s expected goals were 0.72 over expected in 5 games. A +1.06 difference in expected goals over expected at home vs away is unusual: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up 2 times in 100.thinthe split →This game: 0.48 over expected.
On the road, AEK Athens’ expected goals were 1.15 over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 0.31 under expected.

Date	Where	Score
Oct 20, 2026	at Manchester City	Manchester City 5, AEK Athens 1

Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
“This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 19, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
A game with no box score sits out.