Toledo’s points at home and away
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Toledo was 4.2 points over at home and 0.1 points over away in 2026, 4 games against 3. The plain averages are 41.2 and 31.0, a difference of 10.2.
3 games away is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points a game over expected
at home
+4.2
away
+0.1
-20020
A +4.0 difference in points over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
41.2
31.0
204060
A +10.2 difference in points at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 4, 2026 | @ Michigan State | L | 20 | 24.0 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsCCentral Connecticut | W | 63 | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Temple | W | 49 | 28.9 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs San Diego State | W | 41 | 32.4 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Ball State | W | 39 | 35.8 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Buffalo | L | 8 | 41.4 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Eastern Michigan | W | 34 | 32.8 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Western Michigan | W | 45 | 23.6 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.9 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 66% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Central Connecticut has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.