Toledo’s points at home and away
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Through Toledo’s game on Dec 23, 2025.
Against what the season’s ratings expected, Toledo was 10.4 points over at home and 7.9 points under away in 2025, 5 games against 6. The plain averages are 45.8 and 17.3, a difference of 28.5.
Toledo’s +18.3 at home vs away over expected ranks 2nd of the 134 teams with 4 games on each side in 2025 through Dec 23.
points a game over expected
at home
+10.4
away
−7.9
-10010
A +18.3 difference in points over expected at home vs away is rare: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up once in 100.
plain
45.8
17.3
204060
A +28.5 difference in points at home vs away is rare: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up less than once in 100.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 30, 2025 | @ Kentucky | L | 16 | 22.8 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Western Kentucky | W | 45 | 28.4 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vsMMorgan State | W | 60 | — | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @ Western Michigan | L | 13 | 21.9 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vs Akron | W | 45 | 35.0 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @ Bowling Green | L | 23 | 29.9 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vs Kent State | W | 45 | 37.9 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @ Washington State | L | 7 | 20.9 | |
| Nov 5, 2025 | vs Northern Illinois | W | 42 | 28.6 | |
| Nov 12, 2025 | @ Miami (OH) | W | 24 | 27.3 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs Ball State | W | 38 | 33.0 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @ Central Michigan | W | 21 | 28.3 | |
| Dec 23, 2025 | vs Louisville (neutral) | L | 22 | 20.9 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2025 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.5 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 78% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Morgan State has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.