Putting Up Numbers· college football

Wisconsin @ Iowa

Sat, Oct 31, 2026 · No. 25 at unranked

Iowa 30, Wisconsin 0Iowa was favored by 2.5, and Iowa covered.

Wisconsin at Iowa: against expected, a game, this season, This game
a gameWisconsin1 gameIowa1 game
Points−17.2+7.5
Points allowed+2.2−23.0
Total offense, yards−84+39
Total defense, yards−18−85
Touchdowns−2.1+0.6
Passer rating−35.7+61.8
Third downs−5.0%+13.1%
Sacks−0.3+0.2
Penalty yards+13.8−42.1
Turnovers forced−0.2+1.8
Turnovers lost+1.9−0.2

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game.

Who put up numbers

Iowa

Wisconsin

Analysis

What was true going in. Each line says how it stood up, and how it came out.

Iowa

  • Iowa was 3.9 points a game over the closing line this season, 33rd of 136.fact · rankedits form →+27.5 against the line this game.

Wisconsin

  • Wisconsin had won 6 straight at home.streakthe runs →This game didn’t count toward it.
  • Wisconsin was 5.9 points a game over the closing line this season, 19th of 136.fact · rankedits form →−27.5 against the line this game.

The series

  • The series is tied 49–49–2 since 1894. Iowa has won the last 5.seriesevery meeting →

If you squint

  • Iowa had won 8 of its last 10.countits form →Now 9 of 11.
  • Iowa had won 7 of its last 10 at home.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
  • Iowa was 2–2 against the line as a favorite this season.countits form →Covered.
  • Against a ranked opponent, Iowa’s carries were 11.3 under expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 5.3 over expected.
  • At home, Iowa’s total yards were 61.5 under expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 62.4 over expected.
  • Wisconsin was 2–2 against the line as an underdog this season.countits form →Didn’t cover.
  • Against an unranked opponent, Wisconsin’s points were 14.5 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 21.3 under expected.
  • On the road, Wisconsin’s penalty yards were 23.1 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 12.0 over expected.
  • In a conference game, Wisconsin’s points allowed were 11.6 under expected in 4 games. A −19.7 difference in points allowed over expected in a conference game vs in a nonconference game is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were in a conference game and it comes up 7 times in 100.thinthe split →This game: 11.9 over expected.

Every meeting

DateWhereScore
Oct 31, 2026at IowaIowa 30, Wisconsin 0
Oct 11, 2025at WisconsinIowa 37, Wisconsin 0
Nov 2, 2024at IowaIowa 42, Wisconsin 10
Oct 14, 2023at WisconsinIowa 15, Wisconsin 6
Nov 12, 2022at IowaIowa 24, Wisconsin 10
Oct 30, 2021at WisconsinWisconsin 27, Iowa 7
Dec 12, 2020at IowaIowa 28, Wisconsin 7
Nov 9, 2019at WisconsinWisconsin 24, Iowa 22
Sep 22, 2018at IowaWisconsin 28, Iowa 17
Nov 11, 2017at WisconsinWisconsin 38, Iowa 14

Method

  • Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
  • “This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 30, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
  • Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
  • A game with no box score sits out.

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