Northwestern @ 
Oregon
Oregon 34, Northwestern 26Oregon was favored by 4, and Oregon covered.
| a game | Northwestern1 game | Oregon1 game |
|---|---|---|
| Points | +4.4 | +10.6 |
| Points allowed | +2.9 | −1.8 |
| Total offense, yards | +99 | +82 |
| Total defense, yards | +49 | +66 |
| Touchdowns | −0.7 | +1.3 |
| Passer rating | −1.9 | +64.0 |
| Third downs | +5.7% | +3.6% |
| Sacks | −1.6 | +0.8 |
| Penalty yards | −18.9 | −52.2 |
| Turnovers forced | −0.2 | −1.3 |
| Turnovers lost | −1.3 | −0.3 |
Who put up numbers
Oregon
- Passing yardsDylan Raiola336 passing yards
- Passing touchdownsDylan Raiola3 passing touchdowns
- Rushing yardsBrandon Smith82 rushing yards
Northwestern
Analysis
Oregon
- Oregon was 7.3 points a game under the closing line this season, 126th of 136.fact · rankedits form →+4.0 against the line this game.
Northwestern
- Northwestern had beaten 7 straight unranked teams.streakthe runs →Ended here.
- Northwestern had won 4 straight.streakthe runs →Ended here.
- Northwestern had won 8 straight at home.streakthe runs →This game didn’t count toward it.
- Northwestern was 10.9 points a game over the closing line this season, 5th of 136, and 14.2 worse away than at home over its last 25, 134th of 136.fact · rankedits form →−4.0 against the line this game.
The series
- Oregon leads the series 2–1 since 1974. Oregon has won the last 2.seriesevery meeting →
If you squint
- Oregon had won 8 of its last 10 at home.countits form →Now 9 of 11.
- Oregon had failed to cover 7 of its last 10.countits form →Now 7 of 11.
- Oregon was 2–5 against the line as a favorite this season.countits form →Covered.
- At home, Oregon’s third-down conversion rate were 14.2% under expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 5.4% over expected.
- Against a ranked opponent, Oregon’s passing yards were 66.2 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 114.5 over expected.
- In a conference game, Oregon’s pass attempts were 5.4 over expected in 4 games. A +7.1 difference in pass attempts over expected in a conference game vs in a nonconference game is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were in a conference game and it comes up 7 times in 100.thinthe split →This game: 5.3 under expected.
- On the road, Northwestern’s rushing yards were 86.6 under expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 12.9 over expected.
- In a conference game, Northwestern’s third-down conversion rate were 9.8% over expected in 4 games. A +15.5% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected in a conference game vs in a nonconference game is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were in a conference game and it comes up 16 times in 100.thinthe split →This game: 5.1% over expected.
Every meeting
| Date | Where | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2026 | at Oregon | Oregon 34, Northwestern 26 |
| Sep 13, 2025 | at Northwestern | Oregon 34, Northwestern 14 |
| Oct 5, 1974 | at Northwestern | Northwestern 14, Oregon 10 |
Method
- Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
- “This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 30, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
- Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
- A game with no box score sits out.