Putting Up Numbers· college football

Nevada @ UCLA

Sat, Oct 31, 2026 · Unranked at No. 7

UCLA 27, Nevada 0UCLA was favored by 22.5, and UCLA covered.

Nevada at UCLA: against expected, a game, this season, This game
a gameNevada1 gameUCLA1 game
Points−17.9−0.1
Points allowed−4.9−22.4
Total offense, yards−125−49
Total defense, yards−122−162
Touchdowns−2.1−0.9
Passer rating−81.2−16.3
Third downs−1.3%+3.9%
Sacks−0.5+1.0
Penalty yards−42.6−27.1
Turnovers forced−1.2+2.8
Turnovers lost+2.4−1.1

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game.

Who put up numbers

UCLA

Nevada

Analysis

What was true going in. Each line says how it stood up, and how it came out.

UCLA

  • UCLA had covered 8 straight.streakthe runs →Extended to 9.
  • UCLA had covered 4 straight at home.streakthe runs →Extended to 5.
  • UCLA had won 7 straight.streakthe runs →Extended to 8.
  • UCLA had beaten 6 straight unranked teams.streakthe runs →Extended to 7.
  • UCLA had won 4 straight at home.streakthe runs →Extended to 5.
  • UCLA had covered 4 straight on the road.streakthe runs →This game didn’t count toward it.
  • UCLA was 13.4 points a game over the closing line this season, 4th of 136, and 11.6 worse at home than away over its last 25, 135th of 136.fact · rankedits form →+4.5 against the line this game.

Nevada

  • Nevada was 5.1 points a game over the closing line this season, 25th of 136.fact · rankedits form →−4.5 against the line this game.

The series

  • UCLA leads the series 2–0 since 2013. UCLA has won the last 2.seriesevery meeting →

If you squint

  • UCLA was 6–0 against the line as a favorite this season.countits form →Covered.
  • Nevada was 2–1–1 against the line as an underdog this season.countits form →Didn’t cover.
  • On the road, Nevada’s points were 8.5 under expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 16.8 under expected.

Every meeting

DateWhereScore
Oct 31, 2026at UCLAUCLA 27, Nevada 0
Aug 31, 2013at UCLAUCLA 58, Nevada 20

Method

  • Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
  • “This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 30, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
  • Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
  • A game with no box score sits out.

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