New Mexico @ Nevada

Fri, Nov 6 · Mackay Stadium · No. 22 at unranked

The line has it New Mexico 24, Nevada 14.New Mexico −9.5, total 37.5, as of Nov 3. A line moves until kickoff. The median of the books College Football Data lists, through Streak King.

New Mexico at Nevada: against expected, a game, this season, All games
a game	New Mexico8 games	Nevada8 games
	+5.4	−0.6
	−9.6	−1.4
	−8	−34
	−67	−47
	+0.5	0.0
	−6.6	−22.3
	+1.1%	+0.8%
	+0.4	0.0
	+6.0	−12.4
	+1.6	−0.7
	−0.1	+0.4

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game. Lit is among the ten biggest either way. Tap a row for the games.

Analysis

What’s true going in. Each line says how it stood up; you judge.

Nevada

Nevada is 3.9 points a game over the closing line this season, 30th of 136.fact · rankedits form →

New Mexico

New Mexico has beaten 7 straight unranked teams.streakthe runs →
New Mexico has won 5 straight.streakthe runs →
New Mexico has covered 5 straight at home.streakthe runs →
New Mexico has won 11 straight at home.streakthe runs →
New Mexico is 10.5 points a game over the closing line this season, 4th of 136.fact · rankedits form →

The series

Nevada leads the series 6–4–1 since 1941. Nevada has won 4 straight at home in the series.seriesevery meeting →

If you squint

Nevada is 2–2–1 against the line as an underdog this season.countits form →
Without Carter Jones, Nevada’s rushing yards are 68.2 under expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →
Against a ranked opponent, Nevada’s penalty yards are 43.1 under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →
At home, Nevada’s points are 11.5 over expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →
New Mexico has covered 7 of its last 10.countits form →
New Mexico is 5–2 against the line as a favorite this season.countits form →
Without Toa Fa'avae, New Mexico’s penalty yards are 38.9 under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →
On the road, New Mexico’s pass attempts are 8.4 under expected in 4 games. A −10.7 difference in pass attempts over expected away vs at home is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were away and it comes up 16 times in 100.thinthe split →
In a conference game, New Mexico’s penalty yards are 21.6 over expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →

Every meeting

Date	Where	Score
Oct 18, 2025	at New Mexico	New Mexico 24, Nevada 22
Oct 28, 2023	at Nevada	Nevada 34, New Mexico 24
Nov 14, 2020	at New Mexico	Nevada 27, New Mexico 20
Nov 2, 2019	at Nevada	Nevada 21, New Mexico 10
Nov 5, 2016	at New Mexico	New Mexico 35, Nevada 26
Oct 10, 2015	at Nevada	Nevada 35, New Mexico 17
Nov 17, 2012	at New Mexico	Nevada 31, New Mexico 24
Oct 15, 2011	at Nevada	Nevada 49, New Mexico 7
Dec 22, 2007	neutral	New Mexico 23, Nevada 0
Oct 31, 1942	at Nevada	Nevada 0, New Mexico 0

Method

Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
A game with no box score sits out.