Putting Up Numbers· college football

Missouri @ Arkansas

Sat, Oct 31, 2026 · No. 23 at unranked

Missouri 34, Arkansas 10Missouri was favored by 10.5, and Missouri covered.

Missouri at Arkansas: against expected, a game, this season, This game
a gameMissouri1 gameArkansas1 game
Points+8.3−15.5
Points allowed−13.4+8.5
Total offense, yards+18−54
Total defense, yards−37+6
Touchdowns−0.3−1.9
Passer rating−4.3−26.2
Third downs+4.7%+7.1%
Sacks−1.0−1.6
Penalty yards+25.1+26.1
Turnovers forced+1.8−0.3
Turnovers lost−0.3+1.7

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game.

Who put up numbers

Arkansas

Missouri

Analysis

What was true going in. Each line says how it stood up, and how it came out.

Arkansas

  • Arkansas was 2.4 points a game under the closing line this season, 99th of 136.fact · rankedits form →−13.5 against the line this game.

Missouri

  • Missouri had beaten 28 straight unranked teams.streakthe runs →Extended to 29.
  • Missouri had won 5 straight at home.streakthe runs →This game didn’t count toward it.
  • Missouri was 0.6 points a game over the closing line this season, 64th of 136.fact · rankedits form →+13.5 against the line this game.

The series

  • Missouri leads the series 13–4 since 1906. Missouri has won the last 5.seriesevery meeting →

If you squint

  • Arkansas had lost 7 of its last 10.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
  • Arkansas was 2–3 against the line as an underdog this season.countits form →Didn’t cover.
  • Against a ranked opponent, Arkansas’ pass attempts were 5.7 over expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 2.3 under expected.
  • At home, Arkansas’ rushing yards were 46.0 under expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 3.6 over expected.
  • At night, Arkansas’ points were 5.3 under expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 9.4 under expected.
  • Missouri was 2–2 against the line as a favorite this season.countits form →Covered.
  • On the road, Missouri’s passing yards were 96.0 over expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 81.6 under expected.
  • At night, Missouri’s penalty yards were 32.0 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 23.6 over expected.
  • Against an unranked opponent, Missouri’s passing yards were 59.1 under expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 81.6 under expected.

Every meeting

DateWhereScore
Oct 31, 2026at ArkansasMissouri 34, Arkansas 10
Nov 29, 2025at ArkansasMissouri 31, Arkansas 17
Nov 30, 2024at MissouriMissouri 28, Arkansas 21
Nov 24, 2023at ArkansasMissouri 48, Arkansas 14
Nov 25, 2022at MissouriMissouri 29, Arkansas 27
Nov 26, 2021at ArkansasArkansas 34, Missouri 17
Dec 5, 2020at MissouriMissouri 50, Arkansas 48
Nov 29, 2019at ArkansasMissouri 24, Arkansas 14
Nov 23, 2018at MissouriMissouri 38, Arkansas 0
Nov 24, 2017at ArkansasMissouri 48, Arkansas 45

Method

  • Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
  • “This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 30, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
  • Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
  • A game with no box score sits out.