Mississippi State @ 
Texas
Texas 31, Mississippi State 3Texas was favored by 20, and Texas covered.
| a game | Mississippi State1 game | Texas1 game |
|---|---|---|
| Points | −17.6 | 0.0 |
| Points allowed | +1.5 | −21.8 |
| Total offense, yards | −122 | −121 |
| Total defense, yards | −97 | −206 |
| Touchdowns | −1.8 | −0.2 |
| Passer rating | −23.6 | +70.4 |
| Third downs | −2.3% | +1.5% |
| Sacks | +2.7 | +4.4 |
| Penalty yards | −7.0 | −18.4 |
| Turnovers forced | −0.2 | −0.2 |
| Turnovers lost | −0.2 | −0.1 |
Who put up numbers
Texas
- Passing yardsArch Manning220 passing yards
- Passing touchdownsArch Manning3 passing touchdowns
- Rushing yardsRaleek Brown30 rushing yards
Mississippi State
Analysis
Texas
- Texas had beaten 5 straight ranked teams.streakthe runs →This game didn’t count toward it.
- Texas was 1.4 points a game under the closing line this season, 92nd of 136.fact · rankedits form →+8.0 against the line this game.
Mississippi State
- Mississippi State was 1.6 points a game over the closing line this season, 54th of 136, and 7.7 better away than at home over its last 25, 9th of 136.fact · rankedits form →−8.0 against the line this game.
The series
- Texas leads the series 5–2 since 1921. Texas has won the last 4.seriesevery meeting →
If you squint
- Texas had won 9 of its last 10 at home.countits form →Now 10 of 11.
- Texas had won 8 of its last 10.countits form →Now 9 of 11.
- Texas had beaten 7 of its last 10 unranked opponents.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
- Texas was 2–5 against the line as a favorite this season.countits form →Covered.
- In a conference game, Texas’ third-down conversion rate were 16.1% under expected in 4 games. A −35.3% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected in a conference game vs in a nonconference game is unusual: shuffle which games were in a conference game and it comes up 3 times in 100.thinthe split →This game: 1.3% over expected.
- At night, Texas’ pass attempts were 6.0 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 9.5 under expected.
- Mississippi State had covered 7 of its last 10 on the road.countits form →Now 7 of 11.
- Mississippi State was 1–3 against the line as an underdog this season.countits form →Didn’t cover.
- At night, Mississippi State’s passing yards were 158.3 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 101.8 under expected.
- On the road, Mississippi State’s pass attempts were 7.8 under expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 8.5 under expected.
- Against a ranked opponent, Mississippi State’s points of margin were 10.1 under expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 18.3 under expected.
Every meeting
| Date | Where | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2026 | at Texas | Texas 31, Mississippi State 3 |
| Oct 25, 2025 | at Mississippi State | Texas 45, Mississippi State 38 |
| Sep 28, 2024 | at Texas | Texas 35, Mississippi State 13 |
| Jan 1, 1999 | neutral | Texas 38, Mississippi State 11 |
| Sep 5, 1992 | at Texas | Mississippi State 28, Texas 10 |
| Sep 7, 1991 | at Mississippi State | Mississippi State 13, Texas 6 |
| Nov 11, 1921 | at Texas | Texas 54, Mississippi State 7 |
Method
- Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
- “This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 30, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
- Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
- A game with no box score sits out.