Putting Up Numbers· college football

Georgia vs Florida

Sat, Oct 31, 2026 · No. 3 vs No. 17

Georgia 27, Florida 8Georgia was favored by 11.5, and Georgia covered.

Georgia vs Florida: against expected, a game, this season, This game
a gameGeorgia1 gameFlorida1 game
Points−2.1−12.6
Points allowed−25.0−8.2
Total offense, yards−75−88
Total defense, yards−171−110
Touchdowns−1.5−1.6
Passer rating−49.8−26.0
Third downs−1.5%−4.7%
Sacks+2.2−0.7
Penalty yards−24.4+21.8
Turnovers forced+2.8−0.2
Turnovers lost−0.2+2.7

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game.

Who put up numbers

Florida

Georgia

Analysis

What was true going in. Each line says how it stood up, and how it came out.

Florida

  • Florida was 1.2 points a game under the closing line this season, 90th of 136.fact · rankedits form →−7.5 against the line this game.

Georgia

  • Georgia had covered 4 straight on the road.streakthe runs →This game didn’t count toward it.
  • Georgia had won 5 straight on the road.streakthe runs →This game didn’t count toward it.
  • Georgia was 3.3 points a game over the closing line this season, 36th of 136.fact · rankedits form →+7.5 against the line this game.

The series

  • Georgia leads the series 59–44–2 since 1904. Georgia has won the last 6.seriesevery meeting →

If you squint

  • Against a top-10 opponent, Florida’s points of margin were 24.2 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 15.0 under expected.
  • Georgia had won 8 of its last 10.countits form →Now 9 of 11.
  • Georgia had beaten 7 of its last 10 ranked opponents.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
  • Georgia was 4–2 against the line as a favorite this season.countits form →Covered.
  • Against a ranked opponent, Georgia’s points allowed were 17.5 under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 24.1 under expected.

Every meeting

DateWhereScore
Oct 31, 2026neutralGeorgia 27, Florida 8
Nov 1, 2025neutralGeorgia 24, Florida 20
Nov 2, 2024neutralGeorgia 34, Florida 20
Oct 28, 2023neutralGeorgia 43, Florida 20
Oct 29, 2022neutralGeorgia 42, Florida 20
Oct 30, 2021neutralGeorgia 34, Florida 7
Nov 7, 2020neutralFlorida 44, Georgia 28
Nov 2, 2019neutralGeorgia 24, Florida 17
Oct 27, 2018neutralGeorgia 36, Florida 17
Oct 28, 2017neutralGeorgia 42, Florida 7

Method

  • Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
  • “This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 30, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
  • Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
  • A game with no box score sits out.

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