Putting Up Numbers· college football

Florida International @ Liberty

Sat, Oct 31, 2026

Liberty 49, Florida International 10Liberty was favored by 13.5, and Liberty covered.

Florida International at Liberty: against expected, a game, this season, This game
a gameFlorida International1 gameLiberty1 game
Points−7.0+25.8
Points allowed+18.9−8.6
Total offense, yards−100+44
Total defense, yards−15−140
Touchdowns−0.8+4.6
Passer rating−1.4+41.9
Third downs−14.1%+26.0%
Sacks−0.6+2.4
Penalty yards+14.6+4.4
Turnovers forced−0.3−0.2
Turnovers lost−0.2−0.2

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game.

Who put up numbers

Liberty

Florida International

Analysis

What was true going in. Each line says how it stood up, and how it came out.

Liberty

  • Liberty had covered 5 straight.streakthe runs →Extended to 6.
  • Liberty had won 5 straight by 10 or more.streakthe runs →Extended to 6.
  • Liberty had beaten 6 straight unranked teams.streakthe runs →Extended to 7.
  • Liberty had won 6 straight.streakthe runs →Extended to 7.
  • Liberty was 7.8 points a game over the closing line this season, 9th of 136.fact · rankedits form →+25.5 against the line this game.

Florida International

  • Florida International was 1.9 points a game under the closing line this season, 97th of 136.fact · rankedits form →−25.5 against the line this game.

The series

  • Liberty leads the series 4–1 since 2020. Liberty has won 3 straight at home in the series.seriesevery meeting →

If you squint

  • Liberty had won 7 of its last 10 at home.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
  • Liberty was 5–1 against the line as a favorite this season.countits form →Covered.
  • At home, Liberty’s third-down conversion rate were 24.6% over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 23.4% over expected.
  • In a conference game, Liberty’s penalty yards were 42.1 over expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 4.7 under expected.
  • After a bye, Florida International’s passing yards were 138.3 under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 24.5 under expected.
  • On the road, Florida International’s pass attempts were 10.9 over expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 2.2 under expected.
  • In a conference game, Florida International’s passing yards were 40.8 under expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 24.5 under expected.

Every meeting

DateWhereScore
Oct 31, 2026at LibertyLiberty 49, Florida International 10
Nov 15, 2025at Florida InternationalFlorida International 34, Liberty 27
Oct 8, 2024at LibertyLiberty 31, Florida International 24
Sep 23, 2023at Florida InternationalLiberty 38, Florida International 6
Sep 26, 2020at LibertyLiberty 36, Florida International 34

Method

  • Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
  • “This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 30, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
  • Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
  • A game with no box score sits out.

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