Putting Up Numbers· college football

Clemson @ Florida State

Sat, Oct 31, 2026

Clemson 36, Florida State 24Florida State was favored by 5.5, and Clemson covered.

Clemson at Florida State: against expected, a game, this season, This game
a gameClemson1 gameFlorida State1 game
Points+9.5−2.6
Points allowed−6.1+16.6
Total offense, yards−61+35
Total defense, yards+9+34
Touchdowns−0.40.0
Passer rating−14.7+22.8
Third downs−16.7%−29.3%
Sacks+1.6+1.1
Penalty yards+14.1−13.4
Turnovers forced+2.8−1.2
Turnovers lost−1.2+2.8

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game.

Who put up numbers

Florida State

Clemson

Analysis

What was true going in. Each line says how it stood up, and how it came out.

Florida State

  • Florida State was 0.5 points a game under the closing line this season, 76th of 136, and 13.1 better at home than away over its last 25, 7th of 136.fact · rankedits form →−17.5 against the line this game.

Clemson

  • Clemson was 6.4 points a game under the closing line this season, 121st of 136, and 9.9 better away than at home over its last 25, 5th of 136.fact · rankedits form →+17.5 against the line this game.

The series

  • Florida State leads the series 21–18 since 1970. Clemson has won the last 3. Clemson has won 5 straight at Florida State.seriesevery meeting →

If you squint

  • Florida State had won 7 of its last 10 at home.countits form →Now 7 of 11.
  • After a bye, Florida State’s passing yards were 154.4 over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 162.1 over expected.
  • At home, Florida State’s passing yards were 68.0 under expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 162.1 over expected.
  • Against an unranked opponent, Florida State’s third-down conversion rate were 11.5% over expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 30.5% under expected.
  • Clemson had won 7 of its last 10 on the road.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
  • Clemson had beaten 7 of its last 10 unranked opponents.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
  • On the road, Clemson’s pass attempts were 7.7 under expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 1.3 over expected.
  • Against an unranked opponent, Clemson’s points allowed were 7.2 under expected in 4 games. A −22.2 difference in points allowed over expected vs an unranked opponent and vs a ranked opponent is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were vs an unranked opponent and it comes up 6 times in 100.thinthe split →This game: 4.6 under expected.

Every meeting

DateWhereScore
Oct 31, 2026at Florida StateClemson 36, Florida State 24
Nov 8, 2025at ClemsonClemson 24, Florida State 10
Oct 5, 2024at Florida StateClemson 29, Florida State 13
Sep 23, 2023at ClemsonFlorida State 31, Clemson 24
Oct 15, 2022at Florida StateClemson 34, Florida State 28
Oct 30, 2021at ClemsonClemson 30, Florida State 20
Oct 12, 2019at ClemsonClemson 45, Florida State 14
Oct 27, 2018at Florida StateClemson 59, Florida State 10
Nov 11, 2017at ClemsonClemson 31, Florida State 14
Oct 29, 2016at Florida StateClemson 37, Florida State 34

Method

  • Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
  • “This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 30, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
  • Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
  • A game with no box score sits out.