Putting Up Numbers· college football

Boston College @ Duke

Sat, Oct 31, 2026

Duke 47, Boston College 2Duke was favored by 7, and Duke covered.

Boston College at Duke: against expected, a game, this season, This game
a gameBoston College1 gameDuke1 game
Points−16.4+18.8
Points allowed+18.0−19.3
Total offense, yards−118+16
Total defense, yards−26−138
Touchdowns−2.2+2.8
Passer rating−37.1+10.7
Third downs−19.7%+4.4%
Sacks−1.1+3.5
Penalty yards+69.2+31.0
Turnovers forced−0.3+0.8
Turnovers lost+0.8−0.3

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game.

Who put up numbers

Duke

Boston College

Analysis

What was true going in. Each line says how it stood up, and how it came out.

Duke

  • Duke had won 4 straight as the underdog.streakthe runs →This game didn’t count toward it.
  • Duke was 5.3 points a game over the closing line this season, 24th of 136.fact · rankedits form →+38.0 against the line this game.

Boston College

  • Boston College had covered 4 straight.streakthe runs →Ended here.
  • Boston College was 3.1 points a game over the closing line this season, 37th of 136.fact · rankedits form →−38.0 against the line this game.

The series

If you squint

  • Duke had won 8 of its last 10.countits form →Now 9 of 11.
  • Duke had beaten 8 of its last 10 unranked opponents.countits form →Now 9 of 11.
  • Duke had covered 7 of its last 10.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
  • Duke was 3–2 against the line as a favorite this season.countits form →Covered.
  • At home, Duke’s carries were 6.1 over expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 2.8 over expected.
  • Boston College was 4–1 against the line as an underdog this season.countits form →Didn’t cover.
  • On the road, Boston College’s rushing yards were 69.8 over expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 81.2 under expected.
  • In a conference game, Boston College’s penalty yards were 19.8 over expected in 4 games. A +46.4 difference in penalty yards over expected in a conference game vs in a nonconference game is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were in a conference game and it comes up 7 times in 100.thinthe split →This game: 63.2 over expected.

Every meeting

DateWhereScore
Oct 31, 2026at DukeDuke 47, Boston College 2
Nov 4, 2022at Boston CollegeDuke 38, Boston College 31
Sep 19, 2020at DukeBoston College 26, Duke 6
Oct 3, 2015at DukeDuke 9, Boston College 7
Sep 17, 2011at Boston CollegeDuke 20, Boston College 19
Nov 13, 2010at DukeBoston College 21, Duke 16
Nov 11, 2006at Boston CollegeBoston College 28, Duke 7
Nov 2, 1929at Boston CollegeBoston College 20, Duke 12
Oct 12, 1928at Boston CollegeBoston College 19, Duke 0
Oct 1, 1927at Boston CollegeDuke 25, Boston College 9

Method

  • Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
  • “This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 30, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
  • Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
  • A game with no box score sits out.

Read next