Putting Up Numbers· college football

Arizona @ Texas Tech

Sat, Oct 31, 2026 · No. 22 at No. 13

Texas Tech 34, Arizona 26Texas Tech was favored by 4, and Texas Tech covered.

Arizona at Texas Tech: against expected, a game, this season, This game
a gameArizona1 gameTexas Tech1 game
Points+4.6+10.5
Points allowed+1.2−2.7
Total offense, yards+51+110
Total defense, yards+67+24
Touchdowns+0.3+1.2
Passer rating+25.3−14.0
Third downs+4.7%−2.8%
Sacks−0.9+2.6
Penalty yards−1.7+19.2
Turnovers forced−0.2−1.2
Turnovers lost−1.4−0.1

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game.

Who put up numbers

Texas Tech

Arizona

Analysis

What was true going in. Each line says how it stood up, and how it came out.

Texas Tech

  • Texas Tech had won 12 straight at home.streakthe runs →Extended to 13.
  • Texas Tech was 6.5 points a game under the closing line this season, 122nd of 136.fact · rankedits form →+4.0 against the line this game.

Arizona

  • Arizona had won 5 straight by 10 or more.streakthe runs →Ended here.
  • Arizona had won 5 straight.streakthe runs →Ended here.
  • Arizona had beaten 6 straight unranked teams.streakthe runs →This game didn’t count toward it.
  • Arizona had won 6 straight at home.streakthe runs →This game didn’t count toward it.
  • Arizona was 5.9 points a game over the closing line this season, 18th of 136.fact · rankedits form →−4.0 against the line this game.

The series

  • Texas Tech leads the series 28–5–2 since 1932. Texas Tech has won the last 2. Texas Tech has won 13 straight at home in the series.seriesevery meeting →

If you squint

  • Texas Tech had won 8 of its last 10.countits form →Now 9 of 11.
  • Texas Tech had won 7 of its last 10 by 10 or more.countits form →Now 7 of 11.
  • Texas Tech had covered 7 of its last 10 at home.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
  • Texas Tech was 3–4 against the line as a favorite this season.countits form →Covered.
  • Against a ranked opponent, Texas Tech’s third-down conversion rate were 23.3% over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 3.2% under expected.
  • At home, Texas Tech’s points were 10.3 over expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 5.4 over expected.
  • In a conference game, Arizona’s points allowed were 8.9 under expected in 4 games. A −17.1 difference in points allowed over expected in a conference game vs in a nonconference game is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were in a conference game and it comes up 15 times in 100.thinthe split →This game: 5.4 over expected.
  • Against a ranked opponent, Arizona’s pass attempts were 5.1 under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 9.2 over expected.
  • On the road, Arizona’s pass attempts were 3.7 under expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 9.2 over expected.

Every meeting

DateWhereScore
Oct 31, 2026at Texas TechTexas Tech 34, Arizona 26
Oct 5, 2024at ArizonaTexas Tech 28, Arizona 22
Sep 14, 2019at ArizonaArizona 28, Texas Tech 14
Sep 9, 1989at Texas TechTexas Tech 24, Arizona 14
Sep 10, 1988at ArizonaArizona 35, Texas Tech 19
Sep 22, 1979at ArizonaTexas Tech 14, Arizona 14
Sep 23, 1978at Texas TechTexas Tech 41, Arizona 26
Oct 8, 1977at ArizonaTexas Tech 32, Arizona 26
Oct 23, 1976at Texas TechTexas Tech 52, Arizona 27
Oct 18, 1975at ArizonaArizona 32, Texas Tech 28

Method

  • Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
  • “This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 30, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
  • Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
  • A game with no box score sits out.

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