Putting Up Numbers· college football

Florida Atlantic @ North Texas

Thu, Oct 29, 2026

North Texas 48, Florida Atlantic 41North Texas was favored by 15.5, and Florida Atlantic covered.

Florida Atlantic at North Texas: against expected, a game, this season, This game
a gameFlorida Atlantic1 gameNorth Texas1 game
Points+12.7+12.7
Points allowed+10.6+11.6
Total offense, yards+143+201
Total defense, yards+171+139
Touchdowns+1.4+1.4
Passer rating+5.8+30.0
Third downs+17.0%+15.6%
Sacks−1.3−0.1
Penalty yards+4.1+6.2
Turnovers forced+0.8+0.8
Turnovers lost+0.8+0.8

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game.

Who put up numbers

North Texas

Florida Atlantic

Analysis

What was true going in. Each line says how it stood up, and how it came out.

North Texas

  • North Texas had covered 6 straight at home.streakthe runs →Ended here.
  • North Texas had won 6 straight at home.streakthe runs →Extended to 7.
  • North Texas had beaten 4 straight unranked teams.streakthe runs →Extended to 5.
  • North Texas had won 4 straight.streakthe runs →Extended to 5.
  • North Texas was 9.1 points a game over the closing line this season, 8th of 136, and 12.1 better at home than away over its last 25, 8th of 136.fact · rankedits form →−8.5 against the line this game.

Florida Atlantic

  • Florida Atlantic had won 4 straight at home.streakthe runs →This game didn’t count toward it.
  • Florida Atlantic was 2.2 points a game under the closing line this season, 99th of 136.fact · rankedits form →+8.5 against the line this game.

The series

  • The series is tied 8–8 since 2004. North Texas has won the last 4. North Texas has won 5 straight at home in the series.seriesevery meeting →

If you squint

  • North Texas was 3–1 against the line as a favorite this season.countits form →Didn’t cover.
  • At home, North Texas’ points allowed were 22.1 under expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 9.0 over expected.
  • At night, North Texas’ points allowed were 14.4 over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 9.0 over expected.
  • In a conference game, North Texas’ points were 12.5 over expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 2.3 over expected.
  • On the road, Florida Atlantic’s pass attempts were 10.5 over expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 20.5 over expected.
  • In a conference game, Florida Atlantic’s points allowed were 13.7 over expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 2.3 over expected.
  • At night, Florida Atlantic’s penalty yards were 23.8 over expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 2.1 under expected.

Every meeting

DateWhereScore
Oct 29, 2026at North TexasNorth Texas 48, Florida Atlantic 41
Oct 12, 2024at Florida AtlanticNorth Texas 41, Florida Atlantic 37
Oct 1, 2022at North TexasNorth Texas 45, Florida Atlantic 28
Nov 15, 2018at North TexasNorth Texas 41, Florida Atlantic 38
Dec 2, 2017at Florida AtlanticFlorida Atlantic 41, North Texas 17
Oct 21, 2017at Florida AtlanticFlorida Atlantic 69, North Texas 31
Nov 8, 2014at North TexasNorth Texas 31, Florida Atlantic 10
Sep 29, 2012at Florida AtlanticNorth Texas 20, Florida Atlantic 14
Oct 8, 2011at North TexasNorth Texas 31, Florida Atlantic 17
Sep 25, 2010at Florida AtlanticNorth Texas 21, Florida Atlantic 17

Method

  • Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
  • “This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 28, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
  • Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
  • A game with no box score sits out.