Vanderbilt @ Kentucky

Sat, Oct 24, 2026 · Unranked at No. 12

Kentucky 34, Vanderbilt 17Kentucky was favored by 10, and Kentucky covered.

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game.

Who put up numbers

What was true going in. Each line says how it stood up, and how it came out.

Kentucky’s passing yards were 106.7 higher vs a top-10 opponent than vs an unranked opponent against expected over its last 25 games, 2nd of 30 teams.fact · rankedthe split →This game: 11.3 under expected.
Kentucky’s passing yards were 88.3 higher vs a ranked opponent than vs an unranked opponent against expected over its last 25 games, 2nd of 77 teams.fact · rankedthe split →This game: 11.3 under expected.
Kentucky had covered 5 straight.streakthe runs →Extended to 6.
Kentucky had won 5 straight.streakthe runs →Extended to 6.
Kentucky had beaten 4 straight unranked teams.streakthe runs →Extended to 5.
Kentucky had won 4 straight as the underdog.streakthe runs →This game didn’t count toward it.
Kentucky was 7.1 points a game over the closing line this season, 14th of 136.fact · rankedits form →+7.0 against the line this game.

Vanderbilt had covered 4 straight on the road.streakthe runs →Ended here.
Vanderbilt had lost 4 straight.streakthe runs →Extended to 5.
Vanderbilt was 8.0 points a game under the closing line this season, 130th of 136, and 13.5 better away than at home over its last 25, 2nd of 136.fact · rankedits form →−7.0 against the line this game.

At home, Kentucky’s third-down conversion rate were 16.8% under expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 23.9% over expected.
At night, Kentucky’s penalty yards were 26.3 under expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 26.6 under expected.
Against an unranked opponent, Kentucky’s penalty yards were 22.3 under expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 26.6 under expected.
At night, Vanderbilt’s penalty yards were 24.4 under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 21.3 over expected.
Against a ranked opponent, Vanderbilt’s third-down conversion rate were 9.6% over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 18.9% over expected.
On the road, Vanderbilt’s points allowed were 7.3 under expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 2.6 under expected.

Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
“This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 23, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
A game with no box score sits out.