Texas Tech @ Cincinnati

Sat, Oct 24, 2026 · No. 8 at unranked

Cincinnati 37, Texas Tech 24Texas Tech was favored by 11, and Cincinnati covered.

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game.

Who put up numbers

What was true going in. Each line says how it stood up, and how it came out.

Cincinnati had won 4 straight at home.streakthe runs →Extended to 5.
Cincinnati was 1.0 points a game over the closing line this season, 61st of 136.fact · rankedits form →+24.0 against the line this game.

Texas Tech had beaten 9 straight unranked teams.streakthe runs →Ended here.
Texas Tech had won 4 straight on the road.streakthe runs →Ended here.
Texas Tech had won 6 straight.streakthe runs →Ended here.
Texas Tech had won 12 straight at home.streakthe runs →This game didn’t count toward it.
Texas Tech was 3.6 points a game under the closing line this season, 106th of 136.fact · rankedits form →−24.0 against the line this game.

Cincinnati had failed to cover 7 of its last 10.countits form →Now 7 of 11.
In a conference game, Cincinnati’s third-down conversion rate were 9.2% over expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 9.4% under expected.
Texas Tech had won 8 of its last 10 by 10 or more.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
Texas Tech had covered 8 of its last 10 on the road.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
Texas Tech was 3–3 against the line as a favorite this season.countits form →Didn’t cover.
On the road, Texas Tech’s points allowed were 12.6 under expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 11.6 over expected.
In a conference game, Texas Tech’s penalty yards were 17.2 under expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 32.5 over expected.

Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
“This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 23, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
A game with no box score sits out.