Putting Up Numbers· college football

Cincinnati @ Houston

Sat, Nov 7 · TDECU Stadium · Unranked at No. 17

The line has it Houston 37, Cincinnati 26.Houston −11, total 62.5, as of Nov 3. A line moves until kickoff. The median of the books College Football Data lists, through Streak King.

Cincinnati at Houston: against expected, a game, this season, All games
a gameCincinnati8 gamesHouston8 games
+4.2+6.2
+4.6−7.9
+37+89
+84−29
+0.8+1.0
+14.6+30.1
+1.9%+20.9%
+0.2+0.1
−4.0+0.5
+0.3+0.1
−0.4−0.4

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game. Lit is among the ten biggest either way. Tap a row for the games.

Analysis

What’s true going in. Each line says how it stood up; you judge.

Houston

  • Houston has beaten 7 straight unranked teams.streakthe runs →
  • Houston has won 4 straight at home.streakthe runs →
  • Houston is 4.1 points a game over the closing line this season, 28th of 136.fact · rankedits form →

Cincinnati

  • Cincinnati is 1.7 points a game over the closing line this season, 53rd of 136.fact · rankedits form →

The series

  • The series is tied 15–15 since 1957. Cincinnati has won the last 5.seriesevery meeting →

If you squint

  • Houston has won 8 of its last 10.countits form →
  • Houston is 1–4 against the line as a favorite this season.countits form →
  • Without DJ Butler, Houston’s third-down conversion rate are 24.3% over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →
  • Against an unranked opponent, Houston’s carries are 3.3 over expected in 4 games. A +4.6 difference in carries over expected vs an unranked opponent and vs a ranked opponent is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were vs an unranked opponent and it comes up 5 times in 100.thinthe split →
  • Cincinnati is 2–3 against the line as an underdog this season.countits form →
  • Without Gi'Bran Payne, Cincinnati’s points of margin are 27.4 over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →
  • Against a ranked opponent, Cincinnati’s rushing yards are 74.4 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →
  • On the road, Cincinnati’s third-down conversion rate are 10.4% over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →

Every meeting

DateWhereScore
Sep 21, 2024at CincinnatiCincinnati 34, Houston 0
Nov 11, 2023at HoustonCincinnati 24, Houston 14
Dec 4, 2021at CincinnatiCincinnati 35, Houston 20
Nov 7, 2020at CincinnatiCincinnati 38, Houston 10
Oct 12, 2019at HoustonCincinnati 38, Houston 23
Sep 15, 2016at CincinnatiHouston 40, Cincinnati 16
Nov 7, 2015at HoustonHouston 33, Cincinnati 30
Dec 6, 2014at CincinnatiCincinnati 38, Houston 31
Nov 23, 2013at HoustonCincinnati 24, Houston 17
Nov 16, 2002at CincinnatiCincinnati 47, Houston 14

Method

  • Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
  • Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
  • A game with no box score sits out.

Read next