North Texas @ Navy

Sat, Oct 24, 2026

North Texas 49, Navy 39North Texas was favored by 3, and North Texas covered.

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game.

Who put up numbers

What was true going in. Each line says how it stood up, and how it came out.

Navy had won 8 straight at home.streakthe runs →Ended here.
Navy was 3.8 points a game under the closing line this season, 107th of 136.fact · rankedits form →−7.0 against the line this game.

North Texas had covered 6 straight at home.streakthe runs →This game didn’t count toward it.
North Texas had won 6 straight at home.streakthe runs →This game didn’t count toward it.
North Texas was 9.4 points a game over the closing line this season, 9th of 136.fact · rankedits form →+7.0 against the line this game.

The series is tied 2–2 since 2007. North Texas has won the last 2.seriesevery meeting →

At home, Navy’s third-down conversion rate were 36.8% over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 1.7% over expected.
North Texas had beaten 9 of its last 10 unranked opponents.countits form →Now 10 of 11.
North Texas had won 7 of its last 10.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
North Texas had won 7 of its last 10 on the road.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
On the road, North Texas’ points allowed were 15.4 over expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 8.6 over expected.
In a conference game, North Texas’ points were 10.0 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 17.6 over expected.

Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
“This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 23, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
A game with no box score sits out.