Iowa State @ Arizona

Sat, Oct 24, 2026 · Unranked at No. 25

Arizona 39, Iowa State 3Arizona was favored by 12, and Arizona covered.

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game.

Who put up numbers

What was true going in. Each line says how it stood up, and how it came out.

Arizona had won 4 straight by 10 or more.streakthe runs →Extended to 5.
Arizona had beaten 5 straight unranked teams.streakthe runs →Extended to 6.
Arizona had won 5 straight at home.streakthe runs →Extended to 6.
Arizona had won 4 straight.streakthe runs →Extended to 5.
Arizona was 2.9 points a game over the closing line this season, 43rd of 136.fact · rankedits form →+24.0 against the line this game.

Iowa State had beaten 6 straight unranked teams.streakthe runs →This game didn’t count toward it.
Iowa State was 4.3 points a game over the closing line this season, 34th of 136.fact · rankedits form →−24.0 against the line this game.

Arizona was 2–3 against the line as a favorite this season.countits form →Covered.
At home, Arizona’s third-down conversion rate were 25.5% over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 8.5% over expected.
In a conference game, Arizona’s pass attempts were 5.3 under expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 6.1 over expected.
On the road, Iowa State’s total yards were 110.8 under expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 158.3 under expected.
Against a ranked opponent, Iowa State’s third-down conversion rate were 13.3% under expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 16.9% under expected.
In a conference game, Iowa State’s third-down conversion rate were 9.0% under expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 16.9% under expected.

Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
“This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 23, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
A game with no box score sits out.