Putting Up Numbers· college football

James Madison @ Appalachian State

Thu, Oct 22, 2026

Appalachian State 34, James Madison 31James Madison was favored by 13, and Appalachian State covered.

James Madison at Appalachian State: against expected, a game, this season, This game
a gameJames Madison1 gameAppalachian State1 game
Points+8.9+10.3
Points allowed+7.6−0.2
Total offense, yards+54−15
Total defense, yards−20+21
Touchdowns+1.4+0.2
Passer rating+0.1+10.2
Third downs−24.4%−0.4%
Sacks+1.3−1.7
Penalty yards+34.9+9.5
Turnovers forced−1.2−0.2
Turnovers lost−0.3−1.3

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game.

Who put up numbers

Appalachian State

James Madison

Analysis

What was true going in. Each line says how it stood up, and how it came out.

Appalachian State

  • Appalachian State was 2.9 points a game over the closing line this season, 44th of 136.fact · rankedits form →+16.0 against the line this game.

James Madison

  • James Madison had beaten 18 straight unranked teams.streakthe runs →Ended here.
  • James Madison had won 7 straight.streakthe runs →Ended here.
  • James Madison had covered 4 straight at home.streakthe runs →This game didn’t count toward it.
  • James Madison had won 11 straight at home.streakthe runs →This game didn’t count toward it.
  • James Madison was 14.4 points a game over the closing line this season, 4th of 136.fact · rankedits form →−16.0 against the line this game.

The series

If you squint

  • At home, Appalachian State’s points were 18.3 under expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 14.6 over expected.
  • At night, Appalachian State’s passing yards were 94.4 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 20.0 over expected.
  • In a conference game, Appalachian State’s passing yards were 77.3 under expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 20.0 over expected.
  • James Madison had covered 8 of its last 10.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
  • James Madison had won 8 of its last 10 on the road.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
  • James Madison had won 7 of its last 10 by 10 or more.countits form →Now 7 of 11.
  • James Madison was 5–1 against the line as a favorite this season.countits form →Didn’t cover.
  • In a conference game, James Madison’s points were 11.6 over expected in 4 games. A +18.3 difference in points over expected in a conference game vs in a nonconference game is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were in a conference game and it comes up 7 times in 100.thinthe split →This game: 0.9 over expected.
  • On the road, James Madison’s carries were 4.7 over expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 9.0 under expected.

Every meeting

DateWhereScore
Oct 22, 2026at Appalachian StateAppalachian State 34, James Madison 31
Nov 15, 2025at James MadisonJames Madison 58, Appalachian State 10
Nov 23, 2024at Appalachian StateAppalachian State 34, James Madison 20
Nov 18, 2023at James MadisonAppalachian State 26, James Madison 23
Sep 24, 2022at Appalachian StateJames Madison 32, Appalachian State 28
Sep 12, 1981at Appalachian StateAppalachian State 45, James Madison 0
Sep 6, 1980at James MadisonAppalachian State 34, James Madison 6

Method

  • Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
  • “This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 21, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
  • Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
  • A game with no box score sits out.