Georgia State @ Appalachian State

Sat, Nov 7 · Kidd Brewer Stadium

The line has it Appalachian State 30, Georgia State 25.Appalachian State −5, total 55.5, as of Nov 3. A line moves until kickoff. The median of the books College Football Data lists, through Streak King.

Georgia State at Appalachian State: against expected, a game, this season, All games
a game	Georgia State8 games	Appalachian State8 games
	+2.9	−4.8
	+4.8	+0.6
	+28	−32
	+25	+30
	+0.4	−0.6
	+15.5	−10.6
	+1.1%	−4.2%
	+0.3	−1.3
	+6.2	−1.4
	+0.1	+0.2
	+0.6	+0.1

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game. Lit is among the ten biggest either way. Tap a row for the games.

Analysis

What’s true going in. Each line says how it stood up; you judge.

Appalachian State

Appalachian State is 2.9 points a game over the closing line this season, 38th of 136.fact · rankedits form →

Georgia State

Georgia State is 5.8 points a game over the closing line this season, 20th of 136.fact · rankedits form →

The series

Appalachian State leads the series 12–0 since 2014. Appalachian State has won the last 12.seriesevery meeting →

If you squint

Appalachian State is 2–2 against the line as a favorite this season.countits form →
At home, Appalachian State’s carries are 6.5 under expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →
In a conference game, Appalachian State’s passing yards are 36.8 under expected in 4 games. A −113.8 difference in passing yards over expected in a conference game vs in a nonconference game is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were in a conference game and it comes up 14 times in 100.thinthe split →
Since Cameran Brown’s last game, Georgia State’s pass attempts are 7.5 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →
Without Dennis Murray Jr., Georgia State’s pass attempts are 6.6 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →
Without Ayden Pereira, Georgia State’s carries are 3.5 over expected in 5 games. A +10.4 difference in carries over expected without Ayden Pereira vs with Ayden Pereira is unusual: shuffle which games were without Ayden Pereira and it comes up 4 times in 100.thinwithout him →

Every meeting

Date	Where	Score
Oct 11, 2025	at Georgia State	Appalachian State 41, Georgia State 20
Oct 26, 2024	at Appalachian State	Appalachian State 33, Georgia State 26
Nov 11, 2023	at Georgia State	Appalachian State 42, Georgia State 14
Oct 19, 2022	at Appalachian State	Appalachian State 42, Georgia State 17
Oct 2, 2021	at Georgia State	Appalachian State 45, Georgia State 16
Nov 14, 2020	at Appalachian State	Appalachian State 17, Georgia State 13
Nov 16, 2019	at Georgia State	Appalachian State 56, Georgia State 27
Nov 17, 2018	at Appalachian State	Appalachian State 45, Georgia State 17
Nov 25, 2017	at Georgia State	Appalachian State 31, Georgia State 10
Oct 1, 2016	at Appalachian State	Appalachian State 17, Georgia State 3

Method

Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
A game with no box score sits out.