Putting Up Numbers· college football

New Mexico State @ Sam Houston

Wed, Oct 21, 2026

New Mexico State 30, Sam Houston 24New Mexico State was favored by 3, and New Mexico State covered.

New Mexico State at Sam Houston: against expected, a game, this season, This game
a gameNew Mexico State1 gameSam Houston1 game
Points+5.9−5.4
Points allowed+3.1+11.4
Total offense, yards+8−145
Total defense, yards−105+31
Touchdowns+1.0−1.2
Passer rating−5.5−17.0
Third downs−22.0%−18.9%
Sacks−0.7−2.1
Penalty yards−8.2+62.0
Turnovers forced−0.2+0.8
Turnovers lost+0.9−0.2

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game.

Who put up numbers

Sam Houston

New Mexico State

Analysis

What was true going in. Each line says how it stood up, and how it came out.

Sam Houston

  • Sam Houston was 4.4 points a game over the closing line this season, 31st of 136.fact · rankedits form →−3.0 against the line this game.

New Mexico State

  • New Mexico State was 2.3 points a game over the closing line this season, 50th of 136.fact · rankedits form →+3.0 against the line this game.

The series

  • New Mexico State leads the series 3–1 since 2023. New Mexico State has won the last 2.seriesevery meeting →

If you squint

  • Sam Houston had lost 7 of its last 10.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
  • Sam Houston had won 7 of its last 10 at home.countits form →Now 7 of 11.
  • Sam Houston was 2–3 against the line as an underdog this season.countits form →Didn’t cover.
  • In a conference game, Sam Houston’s passing yards were 94.2 under expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 23.8 over expected.
  • At home, Sam Houston’s penalty yards were 30.8 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 58.5 over expected.
  • New Mexico State had lost 7 of its last 10.countits form →Now 7 of 11.
  • After a bye, New Mexico State’s pass attempts were 9.4 over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 1.5 under expected.
  • In a conference game, New Mexico State’s third-down conversion rate were 16.0% under expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 22.4% under expected.
  • On the road, New Mexico State’s carries were 5.7 under expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 9.5 over expected.

Every meeting

DateWhereScore
Oct 21, 2026at Sam HoustonNew Mexico State 30, Sam Houston 24
Oct 2, 2025at New Mexico StateNew Mexico State 37, Sam Houston 10
Sep 21, 2024at Sam HoustonSam Houston 31, New Mexico State 11
Oct 11, 2023at New Mexico StateNew Mexico State 27, Sam Houston 13

Method

  • Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
  • “This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 20, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
  • Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
  • A game with no box score sits out.

Read next