Wake Forest @ 
California
Wake Forest 41, California 7Wake Forest was favored by 10, and Wake Forest covered.
| a game | Wake Forest1 game | California1 game |
|---|---|---|
| Points | +12.8 | −18.4 |
| Points allowed | −18.1 | +10.6 |
| Total offense, yards | +129 | −99 |
| Total defense, yards | −110 | +110 |
| Touchdowns | +2.5 | −1.9 |
| Passer rating | +83.1 | −31.6 |
| Third downs | +18.3% | −2.4% |
| Sacks | −1.1 | −2.0 |
| Penalty yards | +49.3 | −18.4 |
| Turnovers forced | −1.2 | −1.3 |
| Turnovers lost | −1.2 | −1.1 |
Who put up numbers
California
- Passing yardsJaron-Keawe Sagapolutele110 passing yards
- Passing touchdownsJaron-Keawe Sagapolutele1 passing touchdown
- Rushing yardsAshten Emory56 rushing yards
Wake Forest
Analysis
California
- California was 4.9 points a game under the closing line this season, 111th of 136.fact · rankedits form →−24.0 against the line this game.
Wake Forest
- Wake Forest had covered 4 straight.streakthe runs →Extended to 5.
- Wake Forest had beaten 5 straight unranked teams.streakthe runs →Extended to 6.
- Wake Forest was 12.5 points a game over the closing line this season, 7th of 136.fact · rankedits form →+24.0 against the line this game.
The series
- The series is tied 1–1 since 2024.seriesevery meeting →
If you squint
- California was 2–3 against the line as an underdog this season.countits form →Didn’t cover.
- In a conference game, California’s points allowed were 12.4 under expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 4.9 over expected.
- At home, California’s third-down conversion rate were 7.5% over expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 1.3% under expected.
- Wake Forest had won 8 of its last 10.countits form →Now 9 of 11.
- Wake Forest was 2–2 against the line as a favorite this season.countits form →Covered.
- At night, Wake Forest’s penalty yards were 58.8 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 44.6 over expected.
- Against an unranked opponent, Wake Forest’s third-down conversion rate were 10.8% over expected in 4 games. A +28.0% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected vs an unranked opponent and vs a ranked opponent is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were vs an unranked opponent and it comes up 15 times in 100.thinthe split →This game: 16.1% over expected.
- On the road, Wake Forest’s pass attempts were 4.7 under expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 0.8 under expected.
Every meeting
| Date | Where | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | at California | Wake Forest 41, California 7 |
| Nov 8, 2024 | at Wake Forest | California 46, Wake Forest 36 |
Method
- Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
- “This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 16, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
- Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
- A game with no box score sits out.