Putting Up Numbers· college football

Pittsburgh @ Boston College

Sat, Oct 17, 2026

Boston College 27, Pittsburgh 21Pittsburgh was favored by 6.5, and Boston College covered.

Pittsburgh at Boston College: against expected, a game, this season, This game
a gamePittsburgh1 gameBoston College1 game
Points−5.1+2.0
Points allowed+3.7−5.8
Total offense, yards+48+36
Total defense, yards+39−9
Touchdowns−2.2+0.9
Passer rating−28.3+18.8
Third downs−16.8%+23.4%
Sacks−0.6−0.7
Penalty yards+75.2−10.3
Turnovers forced+0.8+1.8
Turnovers lost+1.7+0.8

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game.

Who put up numbers

Boston College

Pittsburgh

Analysis

What was true going in. Each line says how it stood up, and how it came out.

Boston College

  • Boston College was 3.9 points a game under the closing line this season, 99th of 136.fact · rankedits form →+12.5 against the line this game.

Pittsburgh

  • Pittsburgh had covered 5 straight on the road.streakthe runs →Ended here.
  • Pittsburgh had won 5 straight on the road.streakthe runs →Ended here.
  • Pittsburgh was 5.2 points a game over the closing line this season, 29th of 136.fact · rankedits form →−12.5 against the line this game.

The series

  • Pittsburgh leads the series 19–17 since 1959. Boston College has won 3 straight at home in the series.seriesevery meeting →

If you squint

  • Boston College had covered 7 of its last 10.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
  • Boston College had lost 7 of its last 10.countits form →Now 7 of 11.
  • In a conference game, Boston College’s penalty yards were 33.7 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 14.5 under expected.
  • At home, Boston College’s third-down conversion rate were 18.2% under expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 28.0% over expected.
  • Against an unranked opponent, Boston College’s third-down conversion rate were 15.4% under expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 28.0% over expected.
  • Pittsburgh had beaten 8 of its last 10 unranked opponents.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
  • Pittsburgh was 3–2 against the line as a favorite this season.countits form →Didn’t cover.
  • On the road, Pittsburgh’s total yards were 111.8 under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 55.1 over expected.
  • In a conference game, Pittsburgh’s passing yards were 58.5 under expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 19.2 over expected.

Every meeting

DateWhereScore
Oct 17, 2026at Boston CollegeBoston College 27, Pittsburgh 21
Oct 4, 2025at PittsburghPittsburgh 48, Boston College 7
Nov 30, 2024at Boston CollegeBoston College 34, Pittsburgh 23
Nov 16, 2023at PittsburghPittsburgh 24, Boston College 16
Oct 10, 2020at Boston CollegeBoston College 31, Pittsburgh 30
Nov 30, 2019at PittsburghBoston College 26, Pittsburgh 19
Sep 5, 2014at Boston CollegePittsburgh 30, Boston College 20
Oct 16, 2004at PittsburghPittsburgh 20, Boston College 17
Nov 1, 2003at Boston CollegePittsburgh 24, Boston College 13
Oct 26, 2002at PittsburghPittsburgh 19, Boston College 16

Method

  • Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
  • “This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 16, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
  • Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
  • A game with no box score sits out.