New Mexico @ Hawaii

Sat, Oct 17, 2026

New Mexico 21, Hawaii 10New Mexico was favored by 14.5, and Hawaii covered.

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game.

Who put up numbers

What was true going in. Each line says how it stood up, and how it came out.

Hawaii was 6.4 points a game under the closing line this season, 122nd of 136, and 16.6 better at home than away over its last 25, 2nd of 136.fact · rankedits form →+3.5 against the line this game.

New Mexico had covered 4 straight on the road.streakthe runs →Ended here.
New Mexico had covered 5 straight.streakthe runs →Ended here.
New Mexico had beaten 4 straight unranked teams.streakthe runs →Extended to 5.
New Mexico had covered 4 straight at home.streakthe runs →This game didn’t count toward it.
New Mexico had won 10 straight at home.streakthe runs →This game didn’t count toward it.
New Mexico was 19.5 points a game over the closing line this season, 1st of 136.fact · rankedits form →−3.5 against the line this game.

Hawaii had covered 8 of its last 10 at home.countits form →Now 9 of 11.
Hawaii had won 7 of its last 10 at home.countits form →Now 7 of 11.
In a conference game, Hawaii’s points were 12.3 under expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 8.0 under expected.
At home, Hawaii’s carries were 3.8 under expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 2.6 under expected.
New Mexico had won 8 of its last 10.countits form →Now 9 of 11.
New Mexico was 4–0 against the line as a favorite this season.countits form →Didn’t cover.
In a conference game, New Mexico’s points were 25.8 over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 11.0 under expected.
Against an unranked opponent, New Mexico’s points were 15.4 over expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 11.0 under expected.
On the road, New Mexico’s pass attempts were 4.6 under expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 12.1 under expected.

Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
“This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 16, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
A game with no box score sits out.