Putting Up Numbers· college football

Nebraska @ Oregon

Sat, Oct 17, 2026

Oregon 17, Nebraska 14Oregon was favored by 6.5, and Nebraska covered.

Nebraska at Oregon: against expected, a game, this season, This game
a gameNebraska1 gameOregon1 game
Points−8.8−5.6
Points allowed−15.6−14.0
Total offense, yards−119−94
Total defense, yards−187−141
Touchdowns−0.7−1.4
Passer rating−32.1−52.0
Third downs+5.7%−16.9%
Sacks−0.6+0.9
Penalty yards+1.8−20.9
Turnovers forced+0.8−0.2
Turnovers lost−0.2+0.8

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game.

Who put up numbers

Oregon

Nebraska

Analysis

What was true going in. Each line says how it stood up, and how it came out.

Oregon

  • Oregon was 5.2 points a game under the closing line this season, 114th of 136.fact · rankedits form →−3.5 against the line this game.

Nebraska

  • Nebraska had beaten 5 straight unranked teams.streakthe runs →Ended here.
  • Nebraska was 8.5 points a game over the closing line this season, 13th of 136.fact · rankedits form →+3.5 against the line this game.

The series

  • Nebraska leads the series 6–3 since 1952. Oregon has won the last 2.seriesevery meeting →

If you squint

  • Oregon had beaten 9 of its last 10 unranked opponents.countits form →Now 10 of 11.
  • Oregon had won 8 of its last 10 at home.countits form →Now 9 of 11.
  • Oregon had won 7 of its last 10.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
  • Oregon was 2–3 against the line as a favorite this season.countits form →Didn’t cover.
  • Against an unranked opponent, Oregon’s penalty yards were 27.9 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 20.6 under expected.
  • At home, Oregon’s third-down conversion rate were 13.5% under expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 15.6% under expected.
  • In a conference game, Oregon’s passing yards were 66.2 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 152.5 under expected.
  • At night, Nebraska’s points were 20.1 over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 10.5 under expected.
  • In a conference game, Nebraska’s penalty yards were 25.0 over expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 4.4 under expected.
  • On the road, Nebraska’s pass attempts were 6.3 under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 3.7 under expected.

Every meeting

DateWhereScore
Oct 17, 2026at OregonOregon 17, Nebraska 14
Sep 9, 2017at OregonOregon 42, Nebraska 35
Sep 17, 2016at NebraskaNebraska 35, Oregon 32
Sep 27, 1986at NebraskaNebraska 48, Oregon 14
Sep 28, 1985at NebraskaNebraska 63, Oregon 0
Sep 14, 1974at NebraskaNebraska 61, Oregon 7
Sep 11, 1971at NebraskaNebraska 34, Oregon 7
Sep 19, 1953at NebraskaOregon 20, Nebraska 12
Sep 27, 1952at OregonNebraska 28, Oregon 13

Method

  • Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
  • “This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 16, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
  • Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
  • A game with no box score sits out.